UK Economics Weekly Are even we too pessimistic on growth? While we have been considerably more upbeat than other forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017, the positive tone of recent indicators suggests that even we might have been a bit too... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Taking stock, six months after the referendum As well as being the end of the year, it is now six months since the UK voted to leave the EU and so it is a good time to take stock of where we are, what we got right, what we got wrong, and what to... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The latest Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economy grew more quickly after the referendum than previously estimated. Moreover, the latest surveys suggest that the economy will turn in... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How gloomy should we be about investment? The past few weeks have brought yet more relatively upbeat economic news and the first estimate of investment in Q3 was no exception. But we wouldn’t read too much into a single set of figures. And... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy about Brexit? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic forecasts garnered more attention than usual after last week’s Autumn Statement, and have been criticised by some for being too gloomy on Brexit. On the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much support will Mr Hammond provide? The rumour mill has been a little quieter than usual. But the Chancellor is surely piecing together a package of giveaways for his Autumn Statement – perhaps something in the region of about £7bn in... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold? We have argued that there are good reasons to think that the economic ramifications for the UK of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election are unlikely to be very large. However, at the margin, his... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much inflation will the MPC tolerate? We think that the upward revision to the MPC’s inflation forecast was about the right magnitude. But for the Committee to respond to this – or a greater – overshoot of the target, domestic costs... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Strong Q3 GDP figures: trick or treat? The recent run of relatively upbeat economic data culminated last week with the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, which was stronger than even we had been expecting. Of course, there are some good... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much has the economy slowed? It’s been a long time coming, but we will finally get the official verdict this week on how much economic growth has slowed in the third quarter following the referendum outcome. Encouragingly, the... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will the pound’s fall lift inflation? The further fall in sterling over the past week or so will add to the inflationary pressures already set to build over the next few years. The drop in the exchange rate will have both direct and... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is another rate cut now off the table? There are at least three good reasons why the chance of another rate cut this year by the MPC has receded. First, the incoming economic data has been better than expected. Second, there are growing... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market hold back the economy? In contrast to the mostly upbeat data on the state of the economy after the Brexit vote, the housing market still appears to be cooling. But we don’t think house prices or transactions will fall too... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the economy in a Brexit sweet spot? The UK economy may be in a bit of a post-referendum “sweet spot” in which some of the positive developments which we have expected to cushion the impact of the vote – including MPC action and the drop... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
