UK Economics Weekly How much support will Mr Hammond provide? The rumour mill has been a little quieter than usual. But the Chancellor is surely piecing together a package of giveaways for his Autumn Statement – perhaps something in the region of about £7bn in... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold? We have argued that there are good reasons to think that the economic ramifications for the UK of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election are unlikely to be very large. However, at the margin, his... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much inflation will the MPC tolerate? We think that the upward revision to the MPC’s inflation forecast was about the right magnitude. But for the Committee to respond to this – or a greater – overshoot of the target, domestic costs... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Strong Q3 GDP figures: trick or treat? The recent run of relatively upbeat economic data culminated last week with the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, which was stronger than even we had been expecting. Of course, there are some good... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much has the economy slowed? It’s been a long time coming, but we will finally get the official verdict this week on how much economic growth has slowed in the third quarter following the referendum outcome. Encouragingly, the... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will the pound’s fall lift inflation? The further fall in sterling over the past week or so will add to the inflationary pressures already set to build over the next few years. The drop in the exchange rate will have both direct and... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is another rate cut now off the table? There are at least three good reasons why the chance of another rate cut this year by the MPC has receded. First, the incoming economic data has been better than expected. Second, there are growing... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market hold back the economy? In contrast to the mostly upbeat data on the state of the economy after the Brexit vote, the housing market still appears to be cooling. But we don’t think house prices or transactions will fall too... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the economy in a Brexit sweet spot? The UK economy may be in a bit of a post-referendum “sweet spot” in which some of the positive developments which we have expected to cushion the impact of the vote – including MPC action and the drop... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Jobs market should weather economic slowdown well The extent of any post-referendum slowdown in consumer spending will hinge crucially on developments in the labour market. While last week’s labour market figures showed little sign of a Brexit impact... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Did the MPC jump the gun in August? The resilience of the recent data has prompted some commentators to question whether the MPC was wrong to cut Bank Rate to 0.25% and announce new gilt purchases of £60bn and corporate bond purchases... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Taking stock of data for the post-referendum period It has been two months since the UK voted to leave the EU and you could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on the economy. After all, different sets of figures released have given... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the jobs recovery about to lose its vigour? On the face of it, last week’s labour market figures provided some further welcome signs that the immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the economy might not be quite as bad as many had feared. The... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Have consumers shrugged off Brexit? Last week’s figures suggested that households haven’t been ruffled much by the leave vote. Admittedly, we are wary about reading too much into these relatively upbeat figures. Temporary factors such... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the MPC’s bazooka hit the target? While the bigger-than-expected package of measures announced by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its August policy meeting is likely to have at least some beneficial effects on the UK economy... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
