UK Economics Weekly (Almost) all good news on the economy The economic picture is a little more nuanced than the seemingly relentless barrage of good news last week might have suggested. But the upshot is that we are still feeling pretty good about the... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Public finances should come good again soon Last week’s public finance figures suggested that deficit reduction has hit a roadblock. But the path of reduction has hardly been a completely smooth one so far. And the strong economic recovery in... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Faster wage growth unlikely to panic MPC Although the US Fed kept interest rates on Thursday, a rate rise across the pond is not far away. And on the face of it, the pick-up in UK pay growth revealed last week suggested that the Bank of... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK should weather rising US interest rates well Even if the US Fed holds fire this week, US interest rates will be rising soon – and, in our view, quicker than markets expect. Turning points in UK monetary policy are often close to US ones. But... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we worry about “Corbynomics”? If the polls are anything to go by, left-leaning Jeremy Corbyn will be elected as the next leader of the Labour Party on 12 th of September. This has prompted a heated debate over his economic... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More “good” deflation to boost consumer recovery Turbulence in financial markets once again overshadowed some positive economic developments on the domestic front last week. Indeed, Q2’s second estimate of GDP showed that the recovery in household... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Consumers to remain confident despite equity rout The FTSE 100’s sharp decline last week, leaving it 10% below its peak in April, certainly won’t lift consumers’ spirits but it is unlikely to be large enough to dissuade them from continuing to spend... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A storm in a China teacup? Headlines have recently been captured by last week’s shock move by the People’s Bank of China to lower the daily reference rate for the renminbi. However, we doubt that this will have much bearing on... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still too cautious on productivity Once again, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) surprised many by the extent of its downward revision to the inflation forecast in its latest Inflation Report and the Governor poured cold water on... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Another milestone for the economic recovery Last week’s GDP figures indicated that the economic recovery has passed another milestone, namely that GDP per capita is now back to its pre-crisis levels. Admittedly, it has taken an extremely long... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger GDP figures won’t rush the MPC The preliminary estimate of Q2 GDP on Tuesday looks set to show that the economic recovery has re-gained some momentum. However, the recent strength of the survey data has not been borne out fully in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How worrying is the rise in unemployment? The surprise rise in unemployment revealed by last week’s labour market figures might be just a blip. However, the fact that both main measures of unemployment rose makes it harder to dismiss this as... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Osborne Identity: Pragmatist not ideologue Despite being unshackled from the constraints of the coalition, the Chancellor chose pragmatism over ideological fervour in last week’s Budget. As well as easing the pace at which borrowing is set to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Budget to leave economy still facing big fiscal squeeze As far as the UK is concerned, the main point to take from last week’s Greek developments wasthat there are still limited signs of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. So far, so not-too-badthen... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hawks ruffling feathers but rate hike still a way off Given the air of uncertainty hanging over Europe, it is perhaps surprising that markets haverecently brought forwards their expectations for the timing of the first hike in official interest ratesin... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grexit risks highlight need for MPC to nurture recovery The odds of Greece defaulting on its debt, and possibly exiting the euro-zone too, seem to be growing by the day. However, as we have stressed before, the UK’s direct economic and financial exposures... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
