UK Data Response GDP (Q4 Final) The final Q4 2022 GDP data suggested the economy was even more resilient in 2022 than we previously thought, as the government absorbed some of the hit to households from high inflation. But we still... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Feb.) February’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates were a further drag on lending in February, particularly in the housing market. That’s before the effects of the recent concerns... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The flash PMIs suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was sustained in March. But with the full drag from high interest rates yet to be felt, our hunch is still that the economy will enter a... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The further rebound in retail sales volumes in February suggests the recent resilience in activity hasn’t yet faded. But we doubt this will last as the drag on activity from higher interest rates... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The reacceleration in CPI inflation in February may be enough to tilt the Bank of England towards raising interest rates from 4.00% to 4.25% tomorrow despite the recent turmoil in the global banking... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) Despite February’s worse-than-expected public finances figures, we still think the Chancellor may have more headroom to cut taxes/raise spending later this year. But the big risk is that a further... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The labour market remained tight in January. Even so, the Bank of England will breathe a sigh of relief as wage growth is easing. Together with the collapse of a couple of US banks having tightened... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m rise in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) will raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession in 2023 and will increase calls for the Chancellor to splash the... 10th March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jan.) While January’s money and credit figures suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to act as a drag on the housing market, they appear to be having less influence in other areas of the economy... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) The sharp rebound in the flash UK composite PMI in February suggests that the economy remained resilient to the dual drags from high inflation and high interest rates at the start of this year. But we... 21st February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finances figures suggest the Chancellor will have scope for some giveaways in his Budget on 15 th March. But with the OBR poised to slash its medium-term GDP growth forecasts, any... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The rebound in retail sales in January was better than expected, had echoes of the leap in US retail sales and suggests that the festive/new year period wasn’t a complete write-off. But while 2023 is... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The fall in CPI inflation from 10.5% in December to 10.1% in January (consensus and CE forecast: 10.2%, BoE forecast: 10.1%), the drop in the core rate from 6.3% to 5.8% and the easing in services... 15th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) December’s labour market data showed that, despite an easing in labour demand, labour market conditions stayed tight and the market continued to support strong wage growth. The Bank of England will be... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec. & Q4) The economy escaped a recession in 2022 by the skin of its teeth (£77m to be precise). But with the full drags from high inflation and high interest rates yet to be felt, we think there will be a... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
