UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (May) Another rise in the flash composite PMI from 60.7 in April to a record high of 62.0 in May points to the economic recovery shifting through the gears and picking up speed. That suggests the pace of... 21st May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Apr.) The surge in retail sales volumes in April shows that households flooded back to the shops once they reopened in the middle of the month and suggests there is even some upside risk to our forecast... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Apr.) The jump in CPI inflation from 0.7% in March to 1.5% in April (consensus forecast 1.4%) was almost entirely driven by energy price effects, which will only be temporary. We doubt a sustained increase... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Mar./Apr.) Today’s data release suggests that the labour market is now on the front foot. Admittedly, the unemployment rate may still rise over the rest of this year. But this will probably be due to people re... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Mar. & Q1) The burst of growth in March shows that the recovery has been gathering momentum more quickly than we had thought and suggests that the risks to our forecast for the economy to return to its February... 12th May 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Mar.) March’s money and credit data provides some signs that a consumer revival was underway even before the COVID-19 restrictions were eased in mid-April. But even if consumers’ willingness to borrow... 4th May 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Apr.) The surge in April’s flash composite PMI suggests that the economy has begun to gather momentum. And this is probably a taste of things to come over the next few months as the shackles from the COVID... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s strong rise in retail sales showed that the economy made a fair bit of progress even before non-essential retailers reopened in April. And sales will probably leap further in April. 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Mar.) The further rise in public borrowing in March rounded out the worst year for the public finances since 1947. But borrowing was £24.3bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rebound in CPI inflation from 0.4% in February to 0.7% in March is the start of a rise to about 1.5% in the next few months and to above 2.0% by December. But as we doubt inflation will stick... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The slight fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests that the government’s job furlough scheme is still insulating the labour market from the worst effects of the pandemic. We still expect... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Feb.) Given there was no change in the lockdown restrictions in February, GDP was never going to shoot back up. But the small rise does suggest that January was probably the low point of the year. We think... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Quarterly National Accounts (Q4) The upward revision to GDP in the second half of 2020 means the economy does not have quite as far to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. And Q4’s high saving rate leaves plenty of scope for a rapid... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Feb.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt continued in February. We doubt much changed in March, but this pattern... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Feb.) The fairly modest rise in retail sales volumes in February affirmed that the third COVID-19 lockdown has been tough for retailers, keeping sales suppressed following the plunge in January. But that... 26th March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar.) The rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS composite activity PMI in March suggests that the economy has started to pick up. And once the COVID-19 shackles start to be released next month, activity will probably... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
