UK Economics Consumer Prices (Feb.) The drag on CPI inflation in February from the COVID-19 lockdown will delay the rebound in inflation to 2.0% and perhaps prompt the markets to reconsider their view that interest rates will rise next... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The drop in the unemployment rate from 5.1% in December to 5.0% in January highlights once again the extent to which the government’s job furlough scheme has protected jobs during the pandemic. We... 23rd March 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) February’s public finances figures showed that borrowing may come in a little below the OBR’s 2020/21 forecast of £355bn. But if we are right in thinking the economic recovery will be faster and... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics GDP & International Trade (Jan.) The good news is that the 2.9% m/m fall in GDP during January’s COVID-19 lockdown will probably be the low point for the year. The bad news is that while the plunges in exports and imports weren’t... 12th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Jan.) The COVID-19 lockdown pattern of households paying back credit and investing in property but small businesses loading up on debt was repeated in January. And we expect a continuation of these trends... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) The rise in the unemployment rate in December is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But if the government follows the roadmap that it laid out on... 23rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) The rise in the IHS Markit/CIPS composite activity PMI in February suggests that the economy didn’t deteriorate further after the probable fall in GDP in January triggered by the current COVID-19... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in retail sales in January suggests that the third COVID-19 lockdown hit the economy harder than the second lockdown in November. Retailers may have to endure a few more months of... 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s poor borrowing figures are likely to set the tone for the next few months as the third COVID-19 lockdown keeps many businesses closed. But the Chancellor should resist the urge to try to... 19th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation from +0.6% in December to +0.7% in January (consensus forecast +0.6%) was trivial given that leaps to around +2.0% in April and to around +2.5% by the end of the year appear... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec & Q4.) The media headlines have focused on the record-breaking 9.9% decline in annual GDP in 2020, but the rise in GDP in Q4, despite the COVID-19 lockdown in November and restrictions in December, is... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) The easing in the COVID-19 restrictions meant that businesses did not rush as fast to take on more debt in December. And with households investing in property and strengthening their balance sheets... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Nov./Dec.) The rise in the unemployment rate in November is another step up on the climb towards the 6.5% peak we expect by the end of the year. But with the rollout of vaccines going well, the jobless rate may... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s flash composite PMI is consistent with our view that the third lockdown, like the second, was much less damaging for the economy than the first lockdown in March/April 2020. But it suggests... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s jump in borrowing is likely to set the tone for the next few months as the third COVID-19 lockdown keeps many businesses closed and will only increase talk of how to pay for the crisis. But... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The tiny rise in retail sales in December shows that it wasn’t a very merry Christmas for retailers. And January’s lockdown means it won’t have been a happy start to the new year either. But at least... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
