Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty The latest drop back in oil prices is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers in the Gulf and we still think that there is a window of opportunity for fiscal policy to be loosened. Elsewhere... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russians return to Egypt, Saudi budget deficit narrows Egypt welcomed back Russian tourists for the first time in six years this week, but any boost to the ailing tourism sector is likely to be limited as other countries maintain travel restrictions to... 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now... 5th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Unrest in Tunisia, Gulf restrictions, Egypt fuel hike Tunisia’s President Kais Saied’s power grab on Sunday and moves over the course of this week will reinforce concerns about the future of democracy in the country and the likelihood of a sovereign debt... 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Delta variant poses biggest threat to non-Gulf economies Concerns about the Delta variant of COVID-19 have grown over the past week but high vaccine coverage in the Gulf means that policymakers are unlikely to resort to harsh containment measures. Other... 22nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi-UAE oil deal, Saudi fuel cap, Moroccan reforms Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have seemingly reached an agreement over oil output quotas and the resulting rise in production will boost economic recoveries across the Gulf over the... 15th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt The failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement over new output quotas has raised the likelihood that the deal collapses and the Gulf states ramp up production. Elsewhere, Oman has asked for IMF assistance... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Kuwaiti budget, Iran’s next president, OPEC+ meeting Kuwait’s FY2021/22 budget approved this week in parliament adds to signs that high oil prices are prompting a shift to looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. Elsewhere, the landslide victory for Ebrahim... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hajj limited again, Iran election, Dubai property The Saudi government’s confirmation that the Hajj pilgrimage will be extremely limited this year will weigh on the Kingdom’s economic recovery. Elsewhere, the likely victory for hardliner Ebrahim... 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt vaccine, MENA tourism, Iran nuclear talks Egypt’s domestic vaccine production has got underway, but the country has a very long way to go before it can lift virus-related restrictions on a sustained basis. Egypt and Bahrain were added to the... 10th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain COVID-19 surge, Oman strikes, OPEC+ meeting The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Bahrain – which comes despite a rapid vaccine rollout – will delay its economic recovery and serves as a warning that other countries’ vaccination campaigns have... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran deal, Gulf re-opening, Tunisia debt restructuring If reports suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal will be revived (perhaps as soon as next week) prove right, the lifting of sanctions would probably weigh on oil prices as Iran ramps up production... 20th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances Recent figures suggest that the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector has bottomed out but we still hold concerns that increasing supply will exacerbate overcapacity and put further strain on banks... 13th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and the IMF, April’s PMIs, Hajj restrictions Tunisia’s government has jump started talks with the IMF over a fresh financing package but it may prove difficult to secure. If the talks fall apart, Tunisia would be pushed towards a messy balance... 6th May 2021 · 7 mins read
