Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price plunge and Saudi austerity The plunge in oil prices over the past week won’t result in balance sheet strains in the Gulf economies, but it does strengthen our view that governments in parts of the region, most notably Saudi... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget data, BinLadin debt, Tunisian elections Budget figures released this week in Saudi Arabia showed that the government loosened fiscal policy in Q2 but the authorities probably have to reverse course in the coming months. Meanwhile, reports... 1st August 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy Central banks in the Gulf will follow the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates next week, but past experience suggests that this is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the economy... 25th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sanctions and shopping, Egypt & Tunisia IMF deals A bill approved by the US House of Representatives this week that seeks to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia has created headlines, but it is unlikely to result in aggressive action against the Kingdom... 18th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian fuel prices and rate cuts, US sanctions Lebanon Fuel price hikes announced in Egypt last weekend mean that the central bank probably won’t respond to June’s sharp fall in inflation by cutting interest rates later today. But the easing cycle looks... 11th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi slowdown, Aramco IPO, IMF worries over Lebanon GDP data released by Saudi Arabia this week showed that its economy slowed sharply in Q1 and, as the drag from oil output cuts intensifies and fiscal policy is tightened, growth will weaken further... 4th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi investment, Egypt & the IMF, Morocco’s car boom The announcement that Saudi Arabia will ease foreign ownership restrictions on publicly-listed companies should go some way to boosting foreign direct investment into the country. Meanwhile, comments... 27th June 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon debt fears, regional tensions, Fed rate cuts The widening of Lebanese dollar bond spreads over the past week suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the authorities will need to resort to a debt restructuring. Meanwhile, this... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional tensions go up a notch, rising chance of conflict Attacks this morning on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman provide the latest sign that geopolitical tensions in the region are mounting and there is a significant and increasing risk that events morph... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices plunge, anniversary of Qatar blockade The plunge in oil prices over the past week isn’t a major headache for the largest Gulf economies, but it will exacerbate balance sheet strains in Bahrain and Oman. It also reduces the chances that... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese budget falls short, more slippage from Bahrain The negative market reaction to Lebanon’s 2019 budget suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the government will need to pursue debt restructuring in the coming years. Fiscal woes... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s subsidy cuts, OPEC+ to renew output deal Electricity price hikes announced in Egypt this week are actually less aggressive than last year’s, but this will shave only a small amount off headline inflation. And with fuel price increases still... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions hit markets, Tunisia’s external risks mount Mounting friction between the US and Iran has dominated the news flow this week and weighed on financial markets across the MENA region. Investors seem to be most concerned that Lebanon will get... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
