Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf rulers’ health, Dubai property downturn Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Kuwait’s Emir Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah were both hospitalised this week, raising questions about a future transition of power in both countries. We doubt that this would... 23rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s political crisis, Kuwait debt, GERD, OPEC+ Political turmoil in Tunisia this week culminated in Prime Minister Elyes Fakhfakh’s resignation, which will ultimately hold up efforts to secure a new IMF deal and raises the risk of a sovereign debt... 16th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diriyah Gate, UAE banks, migrant workers in the Gulf The construction of the new Diriyah Gate tourist development in Saudi Arabia started in the past couple of weeks, but the plan raises concerns that the authorities are repeating their past mistakes... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GDP, tourism, Egypt & the IMF, Lebanon’s crisis Dubai’s economy contracted sharply in Q1 but more timely figures show that the downturn deepened in Q2 and we expect the recovery to be weak. Elsewhere, the inclusion of Morocco and Tunisia on the EU... 2nd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE banks, Kuwait’s savings, Egyptian cafés Reports this week echoed our concerns over the UAE’s banking sector, where non-performing loans were rising even before the onset of the coronavirus crisis. Elsewhere, Kuwait’s government is... 25th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s crisis, Egypt-Ethiopia spat, Hajj suspension, Comments this week from the leader of Hezobllah, Hassan Nasrallah, suggest that the Lebanese government is becoming increasingly disillusioned with talks with the IMF and is looking at alternative... 18th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt and the IMF, OPEC+ extension, Saudi case surge Egypt’s new IMF deal, coupled with May’s weak consumer price figures, has provided space for the central bank to resume its easing cycle at the MPC meeting later this month. Meanwhile, the extension... 11th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi reserves and the PIF, lessons from the EGP fall The recent sharp decline in Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves reflects, to a large degree, a shift in where the Kingdom holds its foreign assets rather than them being relinquished to prop up... 4th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Easing lockdowns, hopes for summer tourist season As Eid al-Fitr celebrations across the Middle East and North Africa draw to a close, a number of countries have started to outline their paths out of stringent coronavirus lockdowns. But with new case... 28th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bailout talks for Dubai, Egyptian pound weakens The past week has provided clear signs of the toll that the coronavirus crisis is taking on Dubai’s economy and negotiations are apparently underway for Abu Dhabi to ride to the rescue. But there is a... 21st May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly IMF talks, curfews, oil output cuts, Saudi inflation Egypt and Lebanon took further steps towards securing IMF support this week, but finalising a deal will prove much harder for the latter than the former. Elsewhere, countries across the region have... 14th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi steps up austerity, Bahrain support to rise Comments from Saudi officials reinforce our view that a devaluation is unlikely and fiscal policy will make the adjustment to low oil prices. Capital spending is likely to shoulder the burden of the... 7th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi balance sheet, curfews easing, Lebanon spat Figures published over the past week have provided the first signs of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s from lower oil prices; but we remain comfortable with our view that the dollar peg will remain intact... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal tightening, Algeria woes, remittance slump Comments from Saudi’s finance minister support our view that fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation will be relied on to make the adjustment to low oil prices, which will make the economic... 23rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Oman budget cuts, IMF in MENA Comments from the Saudi energy minister yesterday suggested the recent price war was a blip in the Kingdom’s policy approach but, given easing oil demand over the coming decades, it might prove to be... 16th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bond sales, NMC Health, Lebanese pound, OPEC+ Governments elsewhere in the Gulf are likely to follow Qatar and Abu Dhabi with dollar bond sales in the coming months as they look to secure funds in the face of low oil prices. The news that NMC... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
