Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, OPEC+ meeting, Aramco IPO Lebanese banks will make some interest payments on FX deposits in local currency, which adds to the evidence that strains in the balance of payments are worsening. The risk of a debt restructuring and... 5th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s central bank governor, Lebanese debt, Saudi tax The appointment of Egypt’s central bank governor, Tarek Amer, for a second four-year term will welcomed by investors as a sign that the government remains committed to orthodox policymaking and... 28th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon crisis, Moroccan growth, UAE insolvency law Lebanon’s government should meet an FX debt repayment next week, but this will further drain the country’s FX reserves and pile further pressure on the dollar peg. Elsewhere, Morocco’s king appointed... 21st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s woes, Qatar blockade, Kuwaiti infighting The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the chances of a combined debt, currency and banking crisis are rising. President Aoun seems to be seeking a bailout package but this would only... 14th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks A few more details of the Aramco IPO have trickled out in the last few days and we now know that 2% of the firm will be listed on the Tadawul on 11th December. The funds from the IPO wouldn’t be quite... 7th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s turmoil, Dubai’s property woes, Aramco IPO Continuing protests and the resignation of PM Saad Hariri have taken Lebanon closer to the brink and a sovereign debt structuring is looking inevitable. Bond spreads are likely to widen further... 31st October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ output cuts, UK-Egypt flights, Lebanon protests Rumours that OPEC+ oil producers are contemplating deeper output cuts underlines the desire of policymakers in Saudi Arabia to push up oil prices. But this would come at the expense of weaker GDP... 24th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF talks, Saudi stocks drop, Tunisia elections Reports that Egypt and the IMF are in negotiations over some kind of future cooperation suggests that the authorities are trying to soothe investor fears of fiscal loosening. But the absence of... 17th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian election, pressure builds in Egypt for stimulus Tunisians will vote for their new president on Sunday with Kais Saied, an independent, facing off against Nabil Karoui, a recently-incarcerated media mogul. Whoever the next president is will face the... 10th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf recession fears, Lebanese pound under pressure National accounts figures released this week showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy officially entered recession in Q2 and Qatar’s economy shrunk too, all of which supports our below-consensus 2019 GDP... 3rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output rebounds, expat levy, Thomas Cook Saudi Arabia has managed to get the bulk of its oil output back online following the Abqaiq attacks but, with oil prices drifting back towards $60pb, the debate may quickly shift to the need to extend... 26th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fallout from Abqaiq attacks, Lebanon aid not a panacea Fears that Saudi Arabia would suffer prolonged disruption to oil output following Saturday's attacks on the Abqaiq oil facility have been avoided, but the attacks appear to have reduced the appetite... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts, Egyptian inflation, Tunisian polls With one eye on the upcoming Aramco IPO and the fiscal position under strain, the odds of the Saudi government pushing for deeper oil production cuts are shortening. Meanwhile, the decline in Egyptian... 12th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Lebanon’s emergency, clouds over Dubai The latest preparations ahead of a listing Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, Aramco, are unlikely to result in a shift in oil policy. Elsewhere, Lebanese policymakers are finally acknowledging... 5th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly No MSCI boost for Saudi stocks, Lebanese woes worsen The fall in the Saudi Tadawul equity index this week, despite the second phase of its inclusion in the MSCI EM index, reinforces our view that the stock market will struggle this year. Elsewhere... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s mounting debt problems, Egypt’s gas boom Lebanon’s dire finances have come back under the spotlight and we continue to think that some form of debt restructuring is more likely than not. Argentina’s experience in the past couple of weeks... 22nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
