Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt The failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement over new output quotas has raised the likelihood that the deal collapses and the Gulf states ramp up production. Elsewhere, Oman has asked for IMF assistance... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Kuwaiti budget, Iran’s next president, OPEC+ meeting Kuwait’s FY2021/22 budget approved this week in parliament adds to signs that high oil prices are prompting a shift to looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. Elsewhere, the landslide victory for Ebrahim... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hajj limited again, Iran election, Dubai property The Saudi government’s confirmation that the Hajj pilgrimage will be extremely limited this year will weigh on the Kingdom’s economic recovery. Elsewhere, the likely victory for hardliner Ebrahim... 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt vaccine, MENA tourism, Iran nuclear talks Egypt’s domestic vaccine production has got underway, but the country has a very long way to go before it can lift virus-related restrictions on a sustained basis. Egypt and Bahrain were added to the... 10th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain COVID-19 surge, Oman strikes, OPEC+ meeting The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Bahrain – which comes despite a rapid vaccine rollout – will delay its economic recovery and serves as a warning that other countries’ vaccination campaigns have... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran deal, Gulf re-opening, Tunisia debt restructuring If reports suggesting that the Iran nuclear deal will be revived (perhaps as soon as next week) prove right, the lifting of sanctions would probably weigh on oil prices as Iran ramps up production... 20th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE property sector, Tunisia’s COVID crisis, remittances Recent figures suggest that the downturn in the UAE’s real estate sector has bottomed out but we still hold concerns that increasing supply will exacerbate overcapacity and put further strain on banks... 13th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and the IMF, April’s PMIs, Hajj restrictions Tunisia’s government has jump started talks with the IMF over a fresh financing package but it may prove difficult to secure. If the talks fall apart, Tunisia would be pushed towards a messy balance... 6th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from MbS’s interview Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare TV interview this week and hinted that some of the government’s recent fiscal tightening may be unwound, which would boost the economic... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi privatisation, UAE TESS extended, Tunisian politics The Saudi government is speeding up its privatisation drive, which will help to finance the budget deficit. But the continued reliance on the Public Investment Fund to drive investment risks... 22nd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, Egypt in the GBI-EM, vaccine worries Hopes of a positive start to talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal were dampened after Iran announced plans to increase uranium enrichment, highlighting that negotiations have a long way to go. If... 15th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Jordan’s royal tumult, OPEC+ surprise, UAE’s vaccines The royal turmoil in Jordan this week couldn’t come at a worse time for the economy and, if corruption allegations spur unrest, this would raise serious fears over the country’s poor external and... 8th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi investment plans, UAE vaccine, Jordan-IMF The Shareek investment program launched in Saudi Arabia this week may help diversification efforts, but there is a risk it leads to a misallocation of resources that damages longer-run growth... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oman and Bahrain fiscal woes, Egypt SMEs, Suez Canal Bahrain and Oman appear to be taking contrasting approaches to fiscal austerity but, in both cases, we think that further assistance from the rest of Gulf will be needed to keep dollar pegs intact... 25th March 2021 · 5 mins read
