Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to dig in, Expo delay adds to Dubai debt fears Oil prices have surged amid hopes that Saudi Arabia and Russia will thrash out a deal to cut oil output, but recent developments suggest that the Kingdom will dig in and demand that the rest of OPEC+... 2nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus latest, IMF deals, Egyptian pound The spread of the coronavirus in the MENA region has led to further draconian containment measures being implemented, which will cause severe economic damage. In turn, this has raised the chances of... 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, MENA virus responses ramp up The news that Saudi Arabia will deepen fiscal austerity suggests that, despite oil prices falling to their lowest levels since the early 2000s, the authorities have no immediate plans to reverse... 19th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price collapse, coronavirus response The large oil producers in the MENA region have doubled-down on their pledges to raise output, but the accompanying collapse in oil prices has resulted in growing concerns about fiscal positions in... 12th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Coronavirus policy response, Lebanon’s debt decision The coronavirus outbreak in MENA has intensified and governments are stepping up policy support to deal with the economic fallout. And OPEC+ looks set to deepen oil output cuts. Elsewhere, Lebanon’s... 5th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi pilgrimages, Lebanese default, Tunisian dinar Saudi Arabia’s decision to temporarily halt religious pilgrimages to the Kingdom adds to the downside risks to economic growth this year. Rumours suggest that Lebanon may delay payment on the $1.2bn... 27th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon default fears, Tunisia finally has a government It is looking increasingly likely that Lebanon’s government will default on a Eurobond payment in March. And while the government is now turning to the IMF to work through its crisis, time is running... 20th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil output cuts, Dubai property, Lebanon-IMF talks The surprise increase in Saudi oil production in January suggests the Kingdom is no longer willing to shoulder the brunt of oil output cuts, which reduces the chance of deeper cuts in response to the... 13th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt, Tunisia’s government, Jordan-IMF deal Lebanon’s Eurobond that matures in March has rallied over the past week amid rising hopes that the authorities will make the payment, but this will simply delay the inevitable debt restructuring... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price drop, Lebanon default risk, failed Saudi attacks The fall in oil prices on the back of fears about the coronavirus outbreak in China doesn’t pose a significant threat to Gulf economies, but it has raised the chances of deeper OPEC+ oil production... 30th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s new (and Tunisia’s lack of) government Lebanon’s prime minister finally managed to form a new government this week and policymakers are quickly facing up to reality of the economy’s woes. A steep devaluation and a debt restructuring are on... 23rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s debt swap, Egypt’s pound, Kuwait’s budget The unravelling this week of a proposed debt swap by the Lebanese authorities suggests that, even once a government is formed, debt restructuring will be a drawn-out process. Elsewhere, the Egyptian... 16th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions, Egyptian inflation jumps The immediate threat of direct conflict between the US and Iran has diminished over the past day or so, supporting a rally in local and global financial markets. But the threat has not disappeared and... 9th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi economy contracts, Sultan Qaboos’ health scare Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q3 of last year and the latest evidence suggests that Q4 was even worse. While a recovery will probably take hold this year, we think that it will be weaker than... 2nd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tight fiscal policy in the Gulf, Saudi labour market We think that the recent rise in oil prices has further to run over the next twelve months, but this is unlikely to pave the way for fiscal loosening in the Gulf. Meanwhile, data released this week... 19th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi growth, Algeria’s election Aramco shares surged after the long-awaited IPO this week, and it looks like some of the proceeds from the sale may be spent by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to offset the hit from the fiscal... 12th December 2019 · 5 mins read
