Latin America Economics Update Latin America: Key calls for 2020 To mark the new year, our various teams have published a series of key calls notes setting out what to watch for in 2020. This Update wraps up some of our key views for Latin America. 18th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean fiscal policy: How worried should we be? Protests in Chile will probably result in a shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy. But it would take a long time for the debt ratio to become a concern, so any corresponding rise in bond... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Easing cycle probably now at an end The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night did leave the door open for one more interest rate cut, but on balance we think the easing cycle is at an end. By the same... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile holds rates, but cuts still likely in late 2020 The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.75% yesterday signalled that policy rates will be left unchanged over Q1, but we still think it’s most likely... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Chilean peso? While there is likely to be more turbulence ahead for the Chilean peso, the big falls are probably behind us. Indeed, with the central bank intervening and copper prices likely to rise, we think it’s... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Could Venezuela dollarise successfully? Comments by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro suggest that the government considers dollarisation as an option to tackle hyperinflation. If implemented, this would probably bring inflation down... 28th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Mexico: Digging into the details Revised GDP figures have, again, shown Mexico as one of the worst-performing large EMs. But a closer look at the data underlines the huge variation within the country, which includes both pockets of... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a closer look at debt restructuring President-elect Alberto Fernández’s plan to resolve Argentina’s debt crisis by growing the economy is not a realistic option. We think that a large debt write-down within a few years is inevitable... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP picks up in Q3, Q4 likely to contract While GDP growth picked up in Q3, activity data for September indicates that the economy had already slowed significantly prior to the protests beginning. GDP is likely to contract in Q4. That said... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Cuts continue, but markets have gone too far After loosening policy again yesterday, Mexican policymakers will probably cut rates by another 75bp over the coming six months. Given that the US loosening cycle now seems to be at an end, market... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s protests: growing risk of longer disruption The sharp fall in the Chilean peso today amid widespread strikes will push up inflation although, with the central bank focused more on the hit to the economy, further interest rate cuts are still... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, strikes neutral tone The statement accompanying yesterday’s decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates made it clear that this did not mark the beginning of an easing cycle. And with inflation and economic... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the Chilean protests There is a good chance that protests caused GDP to contract in Q4. While we expect growth to strengthen by next year, the weak starting point from Q4 has prompted us to revise down our 2020 growth... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five points on Brazil’s fiscal reform package The fiscal package presented to Brazil’s congress yesterday shows that the government is not resting on its laurels after its successful pension reform. However, the good news on fiscal reform already... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
