Latin America Economics Update Peru in good position to weather political crisis The dissolution of congress by President Martin Vizcarra and his heated stand-off with the opposition will likely cause a sell-off in markets and further political gridlock. But as things stand, we... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Where are we with Venezuela’s inflation? President Nicholas Maduro’s attempts to control inflation have had some effect, but without more severe measures we think that price pressures will probably remain extremely high over the coming... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Another rate cut likely in October The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp last night was accompanied by a statement clearly signalling that policymakers intend to ease monetary policy further. As a result... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Brazil’s fiscal reform plans The Brazilian government’s tax and budget reform plans would, if implemented, significantly improve the country’s longer-term fiscal health and productivity growth. But the proposals will face more... 18th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our currency forecasts Latin American currencies are likely to weaken further in the coming months alongside most EM currencies. But while we expect the Chilean peso and Peruvian sol to end next year stronger than their... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile CB slashes rates, leaves door open for more Yesterday’s MPC statement suggested that Chilean policymakers will follow yesterday’s 50bp cut with more easing. The latest growth and inflation data have been weak, and there is a window for further... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian investment set to slow We think that low oil prices and a continued slump in the property sector will cause investment growth in Colombia to slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our growth forecasts sit at... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Capital controls would do long-term damage The capital controls introduced by Argentine President Mauricio Macri over the weekend may, in the short term, help to stem capital flight and slow the pace of FX reserve depletion. But their... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Questions & answers on Argentina’s debt reprofiling The Argentine finance ministry’s decision to extend the maturities of some of its short-term local-law debt, and enter talks with external bondholders, is tantamount to default. The government and... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentine government debt Investors appear to be coming round to our view that an Argentine sovereign debt default is now more likely than not. This Update provides clients with a primer on the composition of federal... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The rout in Argentine markets is likely to push the economy back into recession. We now expect GDP to contract by 3% over this year as a whole (our previous forecast was -2.0%) and inflation to breach... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: the ways that default could play out With Argentine markets continuing to come under pressure, a sovereign debt default is increasingly likely. We think this is most likely to come in response to a request from the IMF, probably before... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
