Latin America Economics Update Questions & answers on Argentina’s debt reprofiling The Argentine finance ministry’s decision to extend the maturities of some of its short-term local-law debt, and enter talks with external bondholders, is tantamount to default. The government and... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentine government debt Investors appear to be coming round to our view that an Argentine sovereign debt default is now more likely than not. This Update provides clients with a primer on the composition of federal... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The rout in Argentine markets is likely to push the economy back into recession. We now expect GDP to contract by 3% over this year as a whole (our previous forecast was -2.0%) and inflation to breach... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: the ways that default could play out With Argentine markets continuing to come under pressure, a sovereign debt default is increasingly likely. We think this is most likely to come in response to a request from the IMF, probably before... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt risks: revisiting the crunch points The rout in Argentine markets yesterday, and increasing likelihood of a lurch to the left in October’s presidential election, has rekindled sovereign default fears. One crunch point could be 15th... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Markets forcing Argentine sovereign default The rout in Argentine markets today will push up the public debt ratio to over 100% of GDP, and makes a sovereign default even more likely. It’s possible that the IMF requests a debt restructuring... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four key points on Argentina’s primary election The comprehensive victory for Alberto Fernandez in Argentina’s primary election paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many investors fear. With a renewed focus on sovereign default... 12th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru latest CB to cut rates, leaves door open for more The statement accompanying the decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates left the door open for further easing. And with the incoming growth and inflation data still weak, there is a... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further rate cuts on the cards The Brazilian central bank’s larger-than-expected 50bp reduction in the Selic rate last night to 6.00%, and hints of more stimulus, have prompted us to pencil in an additional two 25bp rate cuts this... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia unlikely to join global easing cycle A number of major central banks in Latin America are on the cusp of joining the global easing cycle but, in contrast to the prevailing view, we don’t think that Colombia will be one of them. We expect... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Takeaways from Argentina’s latest IMF review One key point contained in the IMF’s latest quarterly review of Argentina’s bailout programme is that the Fund is now expecting the government to run a primary deficit this year (having expected a... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension vote paves way for larger rate cuts The large margin of victory for Brazil’s pension bill in its first vote in the lower house last night is likely to result in a rally in local markets later today, and makes an interest rate cut at the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform won’t revive economic growth Brazil’s pension reform bill would, if passed in its current form, reduce vulnerabilities stemming from the dire public finances. But we are sceptical that it would lead to the near-term turnaround in... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
