Latin America Economics Update Takeaways from Argentina’s latest IMF review One key point contained in the IMF’s latest quarterly review of Argentina’s bailout programme is that the Fund is now expecting the government to run a primary deficit this year (having expected a... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension vote paves way for larger rate cuts The large margin of victory for Brazil’s pension bill in its first vote in the lower house last night is likely to result in a rally in local markets later today, and makes an interest rate cut at the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform won’t revive economic growth Brazil’s pension reform bill would, if passed in its current form, reduce vulnerabilities stemming from the dire public finances. But we are sceptical that it would lead to the near-term turnaround in... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: better GDP data no election game-changer Argentina’s recession eased in Q1 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy returned to positive growth in Q2, but the recovery will be weak and the unemployment rate looks set to rise further... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank sets a high bar for easing The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) cautious statement from last night’s meeting will disappoint the markets, which had expected Copom to lay the ground for the start of an easing cycle. With the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our 2019 Latin America growth forecasts The weakness in growth across Latin America in Q1 largely reflected a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. Even so, the weak carryover has prompted us to revise down our (already below-... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rate cut likely to be a one-off We think that the surprise decision by Chilean policymakers to cut the policy interest rate by 50bp on Friday night to 2.50% will prove to be a one off. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s holding back Brazil’s recovery? Brazil’s recovery from its 2015-16 recession has been exceptionally weak by historic standards, and many of the factors which have held back growth are unlikely to unwind any time soon. Indeed, as... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine inflation close to a peak Argentine inflation is close to a peak and should ease in the coming quarters. But bringing inflation down to single digits will require a reduction in wage indexation, improvements in the central... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in store for the Colombian peso The Colombian peso has been the worst performing EM currency so far this month and we expect it to fall by another 8% or so against the dollar by year-end. The resulting rise in inflation is likely to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: CFK shakes up the election The decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president in October’s election (with a more moderate Peronist at the top of the ticket) has... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Brazilian inflation has probably now reached a peak and the headline rate should fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. With core inflation still extremely soft, the central bank... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
