Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile CB slashes rates, leaves door open for more Yesterday’s MPC statement suggested that Chilean policymakers will follow yesterday’s 50bp cut with more easing. The latest growth and inflation data have been weak, and there is a window for further... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian investment set to slow We think that low oil prices and a continued slump in the property sector will cause investment growth in Colombia to slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our growth forecasts sit at... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Capital controls would do long-term damage The capital controls introduced by Argentine President Mauricio Macri over the weekend may, in the short term, help to stem capital flight and slow the pace of FX reserve depletion. But their... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Questions & answers on Argentina’s debt reprofiling The Argentine finance ministry’s decision to extend the maturities of some of its short-term local-law debt, and enter talks with external bondholders, is tantamount to default. The government and... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentine government debt Investors appear to be coming round to our view that an Argentine sovereign debt default is now more likely than not. This Update provides clients with a primer on the composition of federal... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The rout in Argentine markets is likely to push the economy back into recession. We now expect GDP to contract by 3% over this year as a whole (our previous forecast was -2.0%) and inflation to breach... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: the ways that default could play out With Argentine markets continuing to come under pressure, a sovereign debt default is increasingly likely. We think this is most likely to come in response to a request from the IMF, probably before... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt risks: revisiting the crunch points The rout in Argentine markets yesterday, and increasing likelihood of a lurch to the left in October’s presidential election, has rekindled sovereign default fears. One crunch point could be 15th... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Markets forcing Argentine sovereign default The rout in Argentine markets today will push up the public debt ratio to over 100% of GDP, and makes a sovereign default even more likely. It’s possible that the IMF requests a debt restructuring... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four key points on Argentina’s primary election The comprehensive victory for Alberto Fernandez in Argentina’s primary election paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many investors fear. With a renewed focus on sovereign default... 12th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru latest CB to cut rates, leaves door open for more The statement accompanying the decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates left the door open for further easing. And with the incoming growth and inflation data still weak, there is a... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further rate cuts on the cards The Brazilian central bank’s larger-than-expected 50bp reduction in the Selic rate last night to 6.00%, and hints of more stimulus, have prompted us to pencil in an additional two 25bp rate cuts this... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia unlikely to join global easing cycle A number of major central banks in Latin America are on the cusp of joining the global easing cycle but, in contrast to the prevailing view, we don’t think that Colombia will be one of them. We expect... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
