Latin America Economics Update Industry weighing on Mexico’s economy The struggles in Mexico’s industrial sector suggests that GDP fell by around 20% q/q in Q2. And the weak prospects for the sector will dampen Mexico’s economic recovery over the coming quarters. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: breathing room, but long fight still ahead The debt restructuring deal provisionally agreed between Ecuador’s government and a group of its creditors would, if implemented, ease near-term pressures on the public finances. But we are more... 13th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update More evidence of major fiscal damage After blowing out in April, budget deficits in Latin America remained wide in May. And while a pick-up in economic activity should help tax revenues to recover and social welfare spending to ease over... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the recovery in Latin America The latest surveys and high-frequency data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery finally started to firm up in June. But it is still lagging other EM regions – and Chile’s recovery is yet to... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: still room for another few rate cuts The decision by the Colombian central bank to slow the pace of easing from 50bp to 25bp at last night’s meeting suggests that the rate-cutting cycle is approaching its conclusion. We remain... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for monetary policy in Peru? Peru’s economy appears to be suffering one of the largest economic hits of any country from the coronavirus, which is likely to spur further policy easing. With short-term interest rates essentially... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom tempers hopes for further large rate cuts The statement from yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting poured cold water on expectations in the market that the Selic rate would be cut further from its current level of 2.25% to as low as 1.00... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile central bank delves into unconventional toolbox The decision by Chile’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50% was accompanied by a statement which appeared to unveil a QE programme. The finer details will be fleshed out... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s lockdown conundrum Most policymakers in Latin America are easing lockdowns even though the region is now the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic. This may be less economically damaging than keeping stringent... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Finding the floor for rates in Latin America Our Taylor Rules suggest that monetary easing cycles have further to run in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and we have pencilled in additional interest rate cuts in all three countries. Moreover... 11th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How will Latin America cope with higher public debt? Governments in Chile and Peru should be able to live comfortably with a jump in their public debt-to-GDP ratios this year. Those in Colombia, Mexico and, to a greater extent, Brazil will struggle. The... 9th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: restructuring deal may not be enough The recent progress in talks between Argentina’s government and bondholders suggests that a debt restructuring deal is increasingly likely. However, we are sceptical of the IMF’s view that the... 4th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of lockdown damage as outlook worsens The latest activity data suggest that stringent lockdowns are causing especially deep falls in GDP in Peru and Argentina. But with the region as a whole struggling to contain outbreaks, and limited... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: deeper downturn, but fast recovery Q1 GDP data from Peru suggest that its lockdown is having a bigger impact on activity than measures elsewhere in Latin America. And with new infections in Peru surging in recent weeks, we are revising... 22nd May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s D-day & what it means for restructuring Barring an eleventh hour deal out of the blue, Argentina’s ninth sovereign default will be confirmed on Friday and, while this event is unlikely to surprise many in the markets, it will up the ante on... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Covid-19 crisis & the mounting economic toll The continued rapid spread of the coronavirus through Brazil means that the economy will pull out of its slump more slowly than in many other emerging markets. And with the crisis challenging the... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
