Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt risks: revisiting the crunch points The rout in Argentine markets yesterday, and increasing likelihood of a lurch to the left in October’s presidential election, has rekindled sovereign default fears. One crunch point could be 15th... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Markets forcing Argentine sovereign default The rout in Argentine markets today will push up the public debt ratio to over 100% of GDP, and makes a sovereign default even more likely. It’s possible that the IMF requests a debt restructuring... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four key points on Argentina’s primary election The comprehensive victory for Alberto Fernandez in Argentina’s primary election paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that many investors fear. With a renewed focus on sovereign default... 12th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru latest CB to cut rates, leaves door open for more The statement accompanying the decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates left the door open for further easing. And with the incoming growth and inflation data still weak, there is a... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further rate cuts on the cards The Brazilian central bank’s larger-than-expected 50bp reduction in the Selic rate last night to 6.00%, and hints of more stimulus, have prompted us to pencil in an additional two 25bp rate cuts this... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia unlikely to join global easing cycle A number of major central banks in Latin America are on the cusp of joining the global easing cycle but, in contrast to the prevailing view, we don’t think that Colombia will be one of them. We expect... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Takeaways from Argentina’s latest IMF review One key point contained in the IMF’s latest quarterly review of Argentina’s bailout programme is that the Fund is now expecting the government to run a primary deficit this year (having expected a... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension vote paves way for larger rate cuts The large margin of victory for Brazil’s pension bill in its first vote in the lower house last night is likely to result in a rally in local markets later today, and makes an interest rate cut at the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform won’t revive economic growth Brazil’s pension reform bill would, if passed in its current form, reduce vulnerabilities stemming from the dire public finances. But we are sceptical that it would lead to the near-term turnaround in... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hurdles ahead for the Mercosur-EU trade deal The preliminary trade deal between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) and the EU, if implemented in full, would boost potential growth in the bloc, perhaps by as much as 0.75-1.0%-pt... 1st July 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: better GDP data no election game-changer Argentina’s recession eased in Q1 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy returned to positive growth in Q2, but the recovery will be weak and the unemployment rate looks set to rise further... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank sets a high bar for easing The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) cautious statement from last night’s meeting will disappoint the markets, which had expected Copom to lay the ground for the start of an easing cycle. With the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our 2019 Latin America growth forecasts The weakness in growth across Latin America in Q1 largely reflected a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. Even so, the weak carryover has prompted us to revise down our (already below-... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean rate cut likely to be a one-off We think that the surprise decision by Chilean policymakers to cut the policy interest rate by 50bp on Friday night to 2.50% will prove to be a one off. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s holding back Brazil’s recovery? Brazil’s recovery from its 2015-16 recession has been exceptionally weak by historic standards, and many of the factors which have held back growth are unlikely to unwind any time soon. Indeed, as... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
