Latin America Economics Update Brazil: One more cut and done The statement accompanying last night’s Copom meeting gave a clear signal that there will be just one more 50bp interest rate cut in the current cycle (to 4.50%), which should temper expectations in... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Ecuador’s fiscal challenges Ecuador’s government has successfully stabilised the debt-to-GDP ratio, and it remains committed to IMF plans to cut the public debt ratio to just 30% of GDP. But the president’s climbdown in the face... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: First thoughts following Fernández win There is still a lot of uncertainty following Alberto Fernández’s widely-expected victory in Argentina’s presidential election, but one point we would stress is that a large debt write-down will... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, drops heavy hints for more easing Chilean policymakers’ decision to cut their key interest rate by 25bp yesterday and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that the easing cycle has further to run. We... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Fernández win mean for Argentina? Left-wing Peronist Alberto Fernández is widely expected to win Sunday’s presidential election, and we think that his tenure would be marked by more accommodative policy, persistently high inflation... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the protests in Chile As things stand, there are reasons to think that the protests that erupted in Chile in recent days will have a relatively small impact on the economy and financial markets. The central bank is likely... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rate expectations: is exuberance setting in? The shift in market expectations in Brazil towards much larger interest rate cuts by early 2020 now looks overdone. However, expectations for the Selic rate over a longer time horizon (2-5 years) look... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Lower rates won’t lead to a lending revival The monetary transmission mechanism in Brazil seems to have weakened recently, which is likely to prevent the sharp fall in market interest rates seen since 2017 from feeding through to a significant... 10th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform faces difficult final stretch Worsening relations between the Brazilian presidency and legislature threaten to delay the much-vaunted pension bill and will keep markets on tenterhooks in the coming weeks. It still looks like the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Chilean consumption will be temporary Chile’s economic slowdown this year was mostly due to weaker private consumption, caused by a fall in consumer confidence. But with the labour market strengthening and copper prices likely to rise... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in good position to weather political crisis The dissolution of congress by President Martin Vizcarra and his heated stand-off with the opposition will likely cause a sell-off in markets and further political gridlock. But as things stand, we... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Where are we with Venezuela’s inflation? President Nicholas Maduro’s attempts to control inflation have had some effect, but without more severe measures we think that price pressures will probably remain extremely high over the coming... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Another rate cut likely in October The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp last night was accompanied by a statement clearly signalling that policymakers intend to ease monetary policy further. As a result... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Brazil’s fiscal reform plans The Brazilian government’s tax and budget reform plans would, if implemented, significantly improve the country’s longer-term fiscal health and productivity growth. But the proposals will face more... 18th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our currency forecasts Latin American currencies are likely to weaken further in the coming months alongside most EM currencies. But while we expect the Chilean peso and Peruvian sol to end next year stronger than their... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
