Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in January, of 0.6% m/m, is an early sign that the huge drag the sector exerted on Q4 GDP won’t be repeated in Q1. We still hold... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jan.) The much larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian industrial production in January, of 0.8% m/m, suggests that the economy is being buffeted by global headwinds. If anything, the risks to our below... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb.) The slightly higher-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for February, of 3.9% y/y, was driven by a spike in prices in a few food products which should prove temporary. Copom will probably stick... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean inflation data for February of 1.7% y/y (down from 1.8% y/y in January), means that we are increasingly comfortable with our forecast for rates to be left on hold at 3... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further large fall in Mexican inflation, from 4.4% y/y in January to 3.9% y/y in February, combined with another dip in core inflation, strengthens the case for rate cuts later this year. We are... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth edged up from 2.7% y/y in Q3 to 2.8% y/y in Q4, but while the consensus expects growth to be stronger this year, we expect it to slow. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirmed that, despite the surge in business and consumer confidence, there has been no Bolsonaro boost for the real economy yet. This supports our... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 3.9% y/y, brings the headline rate back into the central bank’s 2-4% target range for the first time in almost two... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to mid-February, combined with the ambitious pension reform presented to Congress yesterday, will keep interest rate hikes off the table in the coming... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in December means that the sector was weaker over Q4 as a whole than we (and probably the statistics office) thought. As a result, there’s a... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation last month reinforces Copom’s dovish message delivered in this week’s policy communiqué, and keeps rate hikes off the table for now. Elsewhere, the larger... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Banxico will row back on previous hawkish rhetoric when it meets this evening. We expect... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) Even though Brazilian industrial production rose by a slightly better-than-expected 0.2% m/m in December, the sector was a drag on growth over Q4 as a whole. The services sector seemed to fare a bit... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Preliminary Q4 GDP figures from Mexico were better than expected, but showed a sharp slowdown in growth from Q3. We still expect growth to accelerate this year and our forecast for a pick-up to 2.5%... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly (Jan.) The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, combined with the recent rally in the peso, means that we no longer expect a 25bp interest rate hike at next month’s... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to the middle of January will give the central bank room to hold off raising rates until there is more clarity on the government’s reform plan. For our... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
