Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.6% y/y, reinforces our view that Copom will hold off from starting a tightening cycle for a few more months. 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) The sharper-than-expected 1.8% m/m contraction in Brazilian industrial production in September won’t prevent the economy as a whole from strengthening in Q3. But it reinforces concerns about the scale... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected rebound in Mexican GDP in Q3, following its contraction in Q2, supports our view that growth will be better than most are anticipating in the coming quarters. Our forecast... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in August puts paid to a strong rebound in overall GDP growth in Q3. But the drop was due in large part to a slump in construction. And with... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in September will provide yet more ammunition to the hawks within Banxico. But with inflation now likely to have peaked, we still expect the next move in interest... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The sizeable rise in Chilean inflation to 3.1% y/y in September, taken together with hawkish comments from policymakers, supports our view that rates will begin to rise at the central bank’s meeting... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in September, has already exceeded the BCB’s newly-published forecasts. And, taken together with comments from policymakers that hint at the start of a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprisingly large 0.3% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August seems to be due to a temporary halt in production at one of the country’s petroleum refineries, which should have... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m gain in Mexican industrial production in July is an early sign that the slump in the sector in Q2 will reverse in Q3. This supports our view that Mexican GDP growth... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The third consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. Accordingly, assuming the peso holds up reasonably well between now and... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The decline in Brazilian inflation in August, to 4.2% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Copom won’t raise interest rates at its meeting this month. Moreover, core inflation still looks quite soft... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in July, of 0.2% m/m, provides further evidence that the economy’s recovery from the truck drivers’ strike in May has been soft. However, leading... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2) The 0.2% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 was a decent outturn given the disruptions to the economy caused by the truck drivers’ strike in late May. And growth is likely to strengthen in the second... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The surge in Chilean GDP growth to 5.3% y/y in Q2 was driven mainly by a pick-up in domestic demand, and is likely to mark the peak in the cycle. Growth is likely to soften gradually from here. And... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected Mexican industrial production figure for June was driven in part by a surge in utilities output, which is unlikely to be sustained. Even so, we still think that industrial... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
