Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in November – the second consecutive monthly fall – all but confirms that overall GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4. As things stand, following... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a seven-month low of 3.7% y/y in December, coming alongside the continued strength of the real, means the central bank is likely to strike a more dovish line in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation, from 4.7% y/y in November to 4.8% y/y in December, means that another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.50%) at next month’s meeting is still likely. However, this will... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in October was driven partly by a collapse in mining output, but other parts of industry also struggled. October’s disappointing... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in November is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp rate hike, to 8.25%, at this month’s meeting still seems more likely than... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in November, to 4.1% y/y (from 4.6% y/y in October), reinforces our view that Copom won’t rush to tighten policy. We expect the Selic rate to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial growth in October, of 0.2% m/m, provides early evidence that GDP growth in Q4 is likely to be weaker than Q3’s outturn of 0.8% q/q. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2018) The robust 0.8% q/q expansion in Brazilian GDP in Q3 was flattered by the recovery from disruptions caused by the truck drivers’ strike in May. That said, the improvement in the latest survey data... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The decline in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.25... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3 2018) The slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 5.4% y/y in Q2 to 2.3% y/y in Q3 is likely to be a blip, and growth should be stronger in Q4. Even so, growth is likely to be weaker than most expect over 2019... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 5.3% y/y in Q2 to 2.8% y/y in Q3 was driven in large part by a drop in export growth, but there are also signs that domestic demand is losing some steam. While... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2018) Colombian GDP growth edged down from 2.8% y/y in Q2 to 2.7% y/y in Q3, and while the consensus expects growth to be stronger next year, we expect it to slow further in 2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The larger-than-expected gain in Mexican industrial production in September chimes with the strong preliminary GDP data for Q3 released late last month, and supports our view that economic growth as a... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Mexican inflation in October confirms that September’s rise was just a blip, and we expect the headline rate to decline further in the coming quarters. Today’s data won’t be enough to... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation decline from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y in October, but with the headline rate likely to resume its upward trend this month and recent labour market data improving, we still think that another... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
