Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s better-than-expected industrial production data from Mexico, which were the result of a surge in manufacturing output, support our view that GDP growth this year will be stronger than most... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Apr.) Brazilian inflation ticked up to 2.8% y/y in April, but underlying price pressures are still subdued. Taking that together with softer economic activity figures, we think COPOM will cut the Selic rate... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further drop in Mexican inflation last month reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that the next move in interest rates will be down. In contrast, the markets have responded to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The small fall in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that, over Q1 as a whole, the sector stagnated, adding to the evidence that GDP growth in Q1 was quite soft. But there are a number... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q expansion in Mexican GDP in Q1 partly reflects the unwinding of some earthquake-related effects, but there are also signs of a broader rebound in activity. Today’s... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected drop in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month reinforces our view that the next move in interest rates will be down. That said, the recent slide in the peso – if... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) The weak Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for April, coming alongside the stabilisation of the real in the past few days, means COPOM is likely to go ahead with another 25bp reduction in the Selic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in February, and the data showed that the sector is continuing to benefit from a jump in construction and utilities output in the aftermath of... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Mar.) Brazilian inflation dipped again in March but our sense is that policymakers will start to focus less on the incoming inflation data and more on rising political risks and the associated drop in the... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican inflation in March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets have now come round to – that... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected decline in Chilean inflation, from 2.0% y/y in February to 1.8% y/y in March, is unlikely to convince the central bank to restart its easing cycle. We expect inflation to rise... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s weaker-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure confirmed that the sector made a very weak start to the year and, barring a surge in output in March, industry probably dragged... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of March was broad-based, and we expect it to continue easing over the course of this year. The data support our view – which the markets appear... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The stronger-than-expected increase in Chilean GDP growth in Q4 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. Today’s data support our... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industrial production stagnated in m/m terms in January, but this was partly payback for a strong 1.0% m/m increase in December. The breakdown reveals that the disruption to industry from... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation in Brazil came in as expected in February, but its failure to pick up over the past couple of months gives Copom the green light to lower interest rates again later this month. We now expect... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
