Japan Economics Weekly Near-term policy catalysts few and far between The details of the fiscal stimulus package unveiled on Thursday were disappointing. The corporate tax surcharge will be phased out a year earlier than scheduled, but there was no mention of a cut in... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How sustainable is the surge in consumption? Consumption has climbed to new highs as a share of demand in recent years, even though the share of income going to workers has fallen. While this can largely be explained by the effects of population... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's dual labour market such a big problem? Japan’s dual labour market undoubtedly has some economic costs, as non-regular workers are much less productive than regular employees. However, the degree of labour market duality is not vastly... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How serious is the government about austerity? The government has pledged to halve its primary deficit by 2015. However, the ongoing surge in public spending casts severe doubt on policymakers' commitment to fiscal austerity despite the planned... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The fallout from Fukushima The impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on energy imports is often overestimated. By contrast, the impact on exports is generally overlooked. The disaster has significantly reduced how much... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What’s causing the widening in the trade deficit? Japan’s trade deficit has reached a record high in recent months. This is often attributed to a surge in energy imports after the shutdown of the country’s nuclear reactors. However, energy import... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly High cash levels unlikely to trigger investment boom Japanese firms have accumulated record amounts of cash and the conventional wisdom is that it is only a matter of time before this triggers a surge in investment. Our view, in contrast, is that... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More FDI could significantly boost productivity Japan’s stock of inward FDI is by some way the lowest in the OECD, reflecting a strict regulatory regime and administrative barriers at the local level. With foreign firms significantly more... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Further yen weakness and Nikkei strength ahead Japanese equities are among the most vulnerable to the fall-out from a potential US government default. What’s more, profit margins are already close to record highs, and the pass-through of earlier... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deficit target unlikely to be reached The decision to go ahead with the first consumption tax hike next year is an important step towards improving Japan’s public finances. But the government will have to go further to have a chance of... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Credibility at risk despite likely consumption tax hike The key event this week will be the government’s decision whether or not to raise the consumption tax as planned next April, which should be announced after the release of the Q3 Tankan survey on... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Who is benefitting from Abenomics? Abenomics is widely heralded as a boon to Japanese society, but the benefits are not being felt evenly. Companies are reporting healthy profits and business confidence remains strong, while the equity... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly To what extent is the weak yen pushing up inflation? The return of inflation has been welcomed by many – although not by Japanese consumers – as an early success for “Abenomics”. In reality there is little behind the increases in the CPI other than the... 16th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why is regular pay not picking up? Despite improving economic conditions, which include the unemployment rate dropping to fresh cyclical lows, nominal wages excluding bonuses and overtime payments have continued to fall. One reason is... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Spare capacity diminishing but still large On balance, the available evidence suggests that spare capacity remains ample. While the falling unemployment rate points to a tightening labour market, wage growth is weak. The output gap is still... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness helps to stabilise current account Investors tend to focus on visible trade when analysing the impact of the weak yen on the current account. The impact on investment income tends to be ignored, even though it is more immediate. Since... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
