Japan Economics Weekly Doubts lingering at the BoJ Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting was mainly concerned with tying up loose ends left over after the policy overhaul earlier in April. But it also revealed that some Policy Board members are unconvinced... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus? What fiscal stimulus? Most commentators appear to have taken official estimates of the scale of the fiscal stimulus in 2013 entirely at face value. At the same time, they are ignoring the elephant in the room – the planned... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should we worry about rising JGB yields? After initially declining, JGB yields are now higher than they were before the Bank of Japan announced its bold monetary easing. This result is not as perverse as it may seem, nor is it necessarily... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade deal a test of commitment to structural reform The Bank of Japan upended expectations for monetary easing at its first April meeting and, in doing so, put the ball back into the government’s court. “Abenomics” was always meant to include... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan likely to signal only an anaemic recovery The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for March (to be released on Monday) will probably show that large manufacturers thought business conditions were less negative in the first quarter and might even... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sentiment running well ahead of hard data A slew of data in the coming week will provide a check-up on the health of the Japanese economy as we approach the end of the first quarter. Surveys of consumer and business confidence show no sign... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A more sympathetic view of Mr. Shirakawa A look back at the Bank of Japan’s actions under Governor Shirakawa suggests that many commentators have been judging him too harshly. Monetary policy was loosened much less aggressively in Japan than... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Euphoria grips the equity market After what proved to be only a brief pause, the slide in the yen and associated surge in the Nikkei have both resumed with a vengeance. A yen/dollar exchange rate of 100 and a further rally to 13,000... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Two-year inflation target would be a step too far One of the policy changes that the new Bank of Japan Governor is likely to consider is a further clarification of the 2% inflation target. Mr Kuroda himself has reportedly suggested an explicit... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the “Abe trade” run its course? The recent sideways trading in the yen and the Nikkei may simply be a pause in the trends, which would not be unusual following such rapid moves. Nonetheless, we do have three more fundamental... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growing risk of disappointment from new-look BoJ The government is due to announce its nominee for Bank of Japan Governor in the next few days, with expectations running high that the successful candidate will set policy-making on a new course. The... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Expectations may now be too high to meet Hopes that a new leadership team at the Bank of Japan will deliver real change probably have a little further to run, even though the transition could still become quite messy. However, the latest... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan back in recession? The consensus is that Japan avoided two successive quarters of contracting GDP at the end of 2012, albeit only just. In contrast, we still expect a small decline. Looking ahead, we are tweaking our... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will a new Governor deliver real change? Despite the headlines, the policy overhaul and additional asset purchases announced by the Bank of Japan last week were timid rather than “bold”. That was the initial reaction in the financial markets... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen at risk of snap back if policy shift fails to impress Markets have, somewhat implausibly, welcomed the returned of Prime Minister Abe as signalling something of a fresh start for Japan. But there is a risk that today’s investor optimism will turn to... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
