Japan Economics Weekly Which sector is gaining most from the weaker yen? Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong headwinds still buffeting Japanese consumers The weakness of demand after the recent consumption tax hike pushed the Bank of Japan on Friday to ease policy and could prompt the government in coming weeks to cancel the second hike currently... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much damage would a delay in the tax hike do? Recent comments by PM Abe suggest that next year’s scheduled hike in the sales tax might be delayed. Concerns about the economic impact of a further tax hike are understandable given the weakness of... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More monetary easing needed to offset fiscal drag Japan is emerging from its second-quarter slump but weak household consumption and business investment, combined with further fiscal austerity, are likely to keep domestic demand sluggish. What’s more... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the weaker yen doing more harm than good? The weaker yen hasn’t resulted in the hoped-for improvement in export competitiveness. It has boosted corporate profits, but the pass-through to business investment has been weaker than usual... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan back in recession? The latest Tankan survey suggests that the economy shrank again in the third quarter, as does the prolonged fall in industrial production. However, we think the recent decline in output reflects the... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan could deliver a positive surprise The analyst consensus is close to unanimous that the forthcoming Tankan will show a second successive decline. That’s not implausible given the continued weakness of the activity data. Nonetheless... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the labour market turned for the worse? Industrial production has been falling for several months, and unemployment has started to rise again. If past experience is any guide, the unemployment rate will continue rising towards 4% by the end... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will public spending really reach a record next year? Ministries’ spending requests for the coming fiscal year have reached a record high, which might raise some questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. However, these requests... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth likely to slow again Labour cash earnings expanded at the fastest pace since 1997 in July. Given recent, much slower, gains in productivity and the low likelihood of significant further tightening in the labour market, we... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the consumption tax be raised again? Japan’s government is debating whether to implement a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in October next year. The fiscal case for a higher tax rate is overwhelming, in particular since the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much of a threat is “hollowing out”? The conventional wisdom is that Japan’s firms have increasingly shifted production facilities abroad in recent years, resulting in a “hollowing out” of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. But... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak Q2 GDP underlines case for more easing Last quarter's GDP figures were weaker than we had expected, and we've adjusted our growth forecast for 2014 from 1.5% to 0.9%. What's more, growth in the current fiscal year may be close to zero... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the recovery from the sales tax hike already over? A string of weak data in recent weeks has cast doubt over the strength of the recovery from the slump triggered by the consumption tax hike. However, it had always been unlikely that the weakness... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing market hit hard by sales tax hike Housing starts and sales have plunged as a result of the sales tax hike, and residential investment will likely contract in both Q2 and Q3. While the experience from the last consumption tax hike is... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are tensions with China hurting exports? Japan’s share of Chinese imports has fallen below that of the EU and South Korea recently. One reason is that large numbers of Japanese firms have shifted production facilities to China. This shouldn... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
