Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan back in recession? The latest Tankan survey suggests that the economy shrank again in the third quarter, as does the prolonged fall in industrial production. However, we think the recent decline in output reflects the... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan could deliver a positive surprise The analyst consensus is close to unanimous that the forthcoming Tankan will show a second successive decline. That’s not implausible given the continued weakness of the activity data. Nonetheless... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the labour market turned for the worse? Industrial production has been falling for several months, and unemployment has started to rise again. If past experience is any guide, the unemployment rate will continue rising towards 4% by the end... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will public spending really reach a record next year? Ministries’ spending requests for the coming fiscal year have reached a record high, which might raise some questions about the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation. However, these requests... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth likely to slow again Labour cash earnings expanded at the fastest pace since 1997 in July. Given recent, much slower, gains in productivity and the low likelihood of significant further tightening in the labour market, we... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the consumption tax be raised again? Japan’s government is debating whether to implement a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% in October next year. The fiscal case for a higher tax rate is overwhelming, in particular since the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much of a threat is “hollowing out”? The conventional wisdom is that Japan’s firms have increasingly shifted production facilities abroad in recent years, resulting in a “hollowing out” of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. But... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak Q2 GDP underlines case for more easing Last quarter's GDP figures were weaker than we had expected, and we've adjusted our growth forecast for 2014 from 1.5% to 0.9%. What's more, growth in the current fiscal year may be close to zero... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the recovery from the sales tax hike already over? A string of weak data in recent weeks has cast doubt over the strength of the recovery from the slump triggered by the consumption tax hike. However, it had always been unlikely that the weakness... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing market hit hard by sales tax hike Housing starts and sales have plunged as a result of the sales tax hike, and residential investment will likely contract in both Q2 and Q3. While the experience from the last consumption tax hike is... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are tensions with China hurting exports? Japan’s share of Chinese imports has fallen below that of the EU and South Korea recently. One reason is that large numbers of Japanese firms have shifted production facilities to China. This shouldn... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't write off the recovery in business investment The sharp drop in machinery orders in April and May casts doubts on the prospects for capital spending. However, we are not too worried. Business investment was exceptionally strong in Q1, so a fall... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Too soon to declare victory on inflation Japanese GDP surely contracted in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, but the latest survey evidence suggests that a recovery is already underway. In the meantime the Bank... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow” The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Underlying price pressure has eased dramatically April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
