Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness helps to stabilise current account Investors tend to focus on visible trade when analysing the impact of the weak yen on the current account. The impact on investment income tends to be ignored, even though it is more immediate. Since... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More investment needed to maintain capital stock Business investment has been a clear laggard in Japan’s recovery. Structural factors, including a high level of investment compared to other countries and a large rise in the capital/GDP ratio since... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen weakness is not a panacea The conventional wisdom is that a weak yen should help boost the competitiveness of Japanese exports. However, most exports are invoiced in foreign currency, and exporters have been reluctant to lower... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tampering with the sales tax hike carries risks China’s economy is set to slow further over coming years but we believe that the slump in growth many are now predicting will be avoided. 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the housing market set to take off? Housing construction should give a boost to the wider economy over coming quarters as low mortgage interest rates support property demand. But Japan’s property market is approaching a turning point... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would consumption tax hikes derail the recovery? The economic case for raising Japan’s consumption tax is overwhelming. We think the government will decide to go ahead with the first hike planned for April next year, provided GDP has not slowed too... 22nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households unlikely to welcome higher inflation Inflation expectations have jumped since the Bank of Japan’s announcement of more aggressive easing in April. Higher inflation should be beneficial for borrowers as it will erode the real value of... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to the Upper House elections The precise results of the upcoming Upper House elections may matter less than commonly thought. While the governing LDP/New Komeito coalition will probably regain a majority of the seats, it is... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan likely to indicate recovery gathering pace The main factors behind the partial recovery in Japanese equities in the last few days have been external, namely the fading of concerns about the outlook for US monetary policy and the risks of a... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Market forecast revisions (mostly for the better) The focus in the past week has been the impact on Japanese financial markets of potential changes to US monetary policy. We have revised our forecasts in the wake of the latest volatility, but the... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is 3% growth achievable? Many commentators have dismissed the government’s 3% target for GDP growth as far too ambitious. But there are two key points that at least some have missed. First, the target applies to nominal... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should we now worry about the yen? If the recent volatility in Japan’s equity and bond markets was not enough to undermine confidence, the yen has also rebounded in the last few days. However, the partial recovery in the Japanese... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Edging out of deflation Japan’s inflation rates look set to turn positive soon. Admittedly, nationwide inflation was still firmly negative on a year-on-year basis in April. But the more timely data for the Tokyo CPI in May... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Taking stock of the recent market volatility If the global financial community was not already following the progress of “Abenomics” closely, Thursday’s slump in the Nikkei has certainly focused worldwide attention on what is happening in Japan... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Was Q1’s strength really due to Abenomics? The encouraging first quarter GDP data have prompted us to revise up our growth forecast for 2013 as a whole. However, while “Abenomics” has certainly boosted sentiment, the jury is still out on... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei The yen finally weakened past 100 to the dollar on Friday, giving the Nikkei another major boost. The timing has been widely attributed to the release of data showing that Japanese investors were net... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
