Japan Economics Weekly Don't write off the recovery in business investment The sharp drop in machinery orders in April and May casts doubts on the prospects for capital spending. However, we are not too worried. Business investment was exceptionally strong in Q1, so a fall... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Too soon to declare victory on inflation Japanese GDP surely contracted in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, but the latest survey evidence suggests that a recovery is already underway. In the meantime the Bank... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow” The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Underlying price pressure has eased dramatically April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Could a revamped GPIF lower the pension deficit? Pension provision is a significant drain on Japan's fiscal resources in part because the returns generated by the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) have fallen short of those earned by... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How reliable are Japan’s preliminary GDP estimates? The two preliminary estimates of GDP are among the most widely followed indicators of Japan’s economy. The good news is that neither of these early estimates displays major biases relative to the... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's fiscal position really that bad? Japan is widely known to have the highest gross government debt level relative to the size of its economy in the developed world but some commentators have argued that the net debt picture is much... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the “third arrow” regain momentum? The second version of the government’s “Growth Strategy”, which is due next month, should include a pledge to cut corporate taxes, and perhaps some measures to cut red tape in Special Economic Zones... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from post-tax hike data If Japan’s past experience is any guide, the next few weeks will deliver a run of downbeat data reflecting a plunge in domestic demand after the consumption tax hike. In fact, many indicators have... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will corporate tax cuts boost investment? The planned shift from corporate to consumption taxes should boost overall economic growth in coming years. However, the benefits from corporate tax cuts alone may be smaller than hoped for, as many... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Signs of success in raising female employment Female employment has risen sharply since Prime Minister Abe returned to office. However, most of the newly-created jobs are part-time or temporary, offering lower pay and fewer opportunities for... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan’s exports pick up again? Japan’s exports have been broadly flat in recent years, reflecting a mix of cyclical headwinds (such as weak global demand) and structural pressures (notably the shift in production capacity abroad)... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Can robots help offset adverse demographics? With the working-age population projected to shrink by almost a third by 2050, it has been suggested that robots could be part of the solution to Japan’s demographic challenges and help boost... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much spare capacity is left? If Japan is to succeed in escaping deflation, growth will have to pick up sufficiently to eliminate the margin of spare capacity - the so-called output gap - that has kept price pressures subdued... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Kurodanomics working? The Bank of Japan has become much more aggressive since Mr. Kuroda took over a year ago. The central bank’s “shock and awe” approach is a welcome departure from the gradualist ways of previous... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
