Japan Economics Weekly Corona complacency risks faster spread Survey data point to a sharp fall in economic activity in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. Admittedly, there were some signs that activity was picking up again in the second half of March. But as... 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Domestic lockdown eased as global outlook worsens Rapidly rising infection numbers in Europe and North America have prompted many government in those countries to roll out strict nationwide lockdowns. By contrast, there were signs of Japan’s already... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Growing evidence that economic activity is collapsing We now expect Japan’s economy to contract by 2% this year. There is mounting evidence that consumers are self-isolating which is weighing on household spending and passenger transport. School closures... 13th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way Consumer spending has rebounded from the slump caused by October’s sales tax hike and we’ve pencilled in a rise in the first quarter. But the coronavirus is likely to result in a renewed slowdown over... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Coronavirus starting to take a toll The coronavirus will probably result in a contraction in output in countries that account for 40% of Japan’s export in the first quarter. That means that we are now expecting an even larger drop in... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to stick to its guns We have long argued that Japan’s economy will shrink this year and the recent string of bad news has only made that outcome more likely. But we still don’t expect the Bank of Japan to respond with... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag The ratio of Japan’s public debt to GDP will probably keep rising over the coming decades. But with the Bank of Japan set to keep a lid on borrowing costs, it’s hard to make the case that public debt... 14th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Impact of coronavirus on industry, workstyle reforms While the coronavirus is already hurting tourism, China’s intensified efforts to contain the virus have presented another potential obstacle for the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, more companies... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe nominates reflationist, Japanification, coronavirus Discussion of “Japanification” amongst BoJ Policy Board members last week prompted one member to propose that the Bank review its monetary policy settings. And this week, PM Abe nominated reflationist... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wuhan virus threat, BoJ’s forward guidance The surge in inbound tourism in general and in Chinese tourist arrivals in particular means that the Wuhan coronavirus may knock off around 0.5%-pt from GDP growth in the first quarter. Amid mounting... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment Proposals to allow regional banks to diversify into non-banking business could help to reduce their overreliance on dwindling interest income. But in a sector famed for its conservatism, business... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts Capacity shortages remained pronounced on the eve on the sales tax hike. And even though we expect the output gap to decline a bit over the coming months, that probably won’t trigger additional easing... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly GDP still likely to shrink this year The economy appears to have weathered October’s sales tax hike better than many had feared. But with industrial production set to record the steepest quarterly fall since the Great East Japan... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches The most reliable measure of consumption showed a rather smaller drop in spending in October. The upshot is that the contraction in Q4 GDP probably won’t be as severe as we had anticipated. Meanwhile... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on prolonged hold Weak activity data suggest that GDP may have contracted by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter and we still expect the economy to shrink next year rather than expand as most anticipate. However, with the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Falling profits, fiscal stimulus inflation The fiscal stimulus package announced this week is unlikely to lift growth meaningfully as most of the spending will merely offset the impact of previous stimulus measures unwinding. And with... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
