Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen adds to speculation over policy easing The renewed escalation of trade tensions has pushed the yen to a 17-month high against the dollar. We consider it very unlikely that the government will respond by intervening on the foreign exchange... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tax hike cushion, minimum wage, whitelist exclusion This week brought more evidence that the swing in consumer spending around October’s sales tax hike is likely to be much more modest than around the previous hike in 2014. Implementation of the... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Koreans boycott Japan, constitutional reform in doubt The economic impact of the Japan-Korea trade dispute is broadening as many South Koreans start to boycott Japan as a holiday destination. Booking of trips to Japan have halved and cancellations of... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto suggests wage growth is stagnating This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in pay hikes that aren’t any stronger than those agreed upon a year ago. That’s rather disappointing given how tight the labour market is. Meanwhile... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Regional bank tie-up a step in the right direction Regional banks’ health has deteriorated as the population is shrinking and the number of firms is falling. As such, the cooperation between two of the largest regional banks that was announced this... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan’s tax structure still far from ideal Prime Minister Abe has pledged that following the increase in the sales tax rate to 10% in October, the tax won’t be raised for another ten years. We agree that there is no pressing need to boost... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections, higher Nikkei forecasts The ruling coalition will probably defend its two-thirds majority at the Upper House election on 21 st July. That means continued fiscal tightening, ultra-loose monetary policy and little progress on... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Post-Olympics public spending boost, BoJ holding firm Japan’s government appears to be lining up a stimulus programme to prevent an economic downturn after the Tokyo Olympics next year. While increased public spending would provide a welcome boost to GDP... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abe blowing his own trumpet a little too loudly PM Abe has presided over a sharp increase in employment since he returned to power in 2012. But productivity growth has been very weak, red tape remains prevalent and there are still too few foreign... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan caught in the crossfire While it hopes to secure its own trade deal with the US before long, Japan risks getting caught in the crossfire of other US trade disputes. The prospect of a 25% tariff on all goods imported from... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan boost fiscal spending to raise inflation? Some commentators have proposed that Japan should raise public spending to boost inflation, which would allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. But given that the economy is operating at full... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Abe will probably press ahead with sales tax hike The Q1 GDP figures overstated the health of the economy and we expect a renewed slowdown in the second quarter. But with domestic demand still rising at a healthy pace and the unemployment rate at the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax hike delay & trade war woes The government downgraded its assessment of economic conditions this week, prompting renewed speculation that the sales tax hike scheduled for 1 st October will be delayed yet again. However, with the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth not as weak as official data suggest The government admitted in January that sampling errors had resulted in wage growth being overstated in 2018. Unfortunately, the government has added to concerns over the accuracy of the wage data by... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP’s election woes The LDP’s recent by-election defeats have generated speculation that the party may do poorly in July’s Upper House election and that the government may delay October’s sales tax hike yet again. But... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
