Japan Economics Weekly Promotion of domestic travel could backfire With cases continuing to surge in Tokyo and now rising fast in Osaka, now might seem like a strange time to promote domestic tourism. However, the government’s “Go To” travel campaign is due to begin... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Restrictions may return in Tokyo New confirmed coronavirus cases in Tokyo hit a record high of 224 today, exceeding the peak of 206 during the state of the emergency in April. While authorities in Australia and the US are responding... 9th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Renewed spike in virus cases to prevent full recovery The May activity data were consistent with our below-consensus forecast of a 9% q/q drop in Q2 GDP. Consumption should rebound more forcefully over the coming months as households receive cash... 3rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April support still not fully spent as new dose readied There is growing public frustration over how long it is taking for households to receive government support funds. Over 40% still haven’t received the ¥100,000 windfall promised by the government in... 26th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Too much paperwork, fewest bankruptcies since 1964 Some companies that have had to furlough workers appear to be judging that applying for the government’s wage subsidy programme is more trouble than it’s worth. Nonetheless, the number of firms... 19th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Reopening drive gathering pace, immigration failure The Tokyo government announced this week that it will join the rest of the country and allow all types of businesses to open from Friday next week. But while that’s good news for consumer spending, we... 12th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services spending slumps, spectre of new wave The Bank of Japan’s broad measure of consumption released today reveals an unprecedented collapse in services spending in April. That supports our below-consensus forecast that GDP will contract by 9%... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly April probably the nadir, but recovery slow going The slump in activity in April was worse than most had anticipated. While domestic demand will rebound now that the state of emergency has come to an end, we think it will take until 2022 for GDP to... 29th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong imports, Kansai gets back up and running The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that... 22nd May 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound in activity to underwhelm The government has now ended the state of emergency in prefectures accounting for around 60% of economic activity. As such, economic activity is set to rebound. However, we expect the recovery to... 15th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdown set to loosen in some regions The government confirmed this week that the nationwide state of emergency will be extended until 31 st May. But with daily cases slowing, some local authorities have signalled they are considering... 8th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Extension of state of emergency to weigh on spending The government will extend the state of emergency at least until the end of May. We continue to expect GDP to fall by 12% q/q in Q2. Meanwhile, the government has started a review of Japan’s outdated... 30th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bankruptcies set to rise despite public loan provision Loan demand is set to surge as firms’ revenues slump in the wake of virus outbreak. Unfortunately, Japanese banks will probably respond to the economic downturn by tightening lending standards. Most... 24th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government mulling additional support The government has now expanded the state of emergency from the initial seven prefectures to the entire country, allowing prefectural authorities to request citizens to stay at home. The experience... 17th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Lockdowns to result in double-digit fall in GDP in Q2 The recent acceleration in the number of new coronavirus cases has prompted the government to declare a state of emergency this week. So far, Japan hasn’t moved to a full lockdown as people are still... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Feb resilience, second wave of containment measures There is increasing speculation that some parts of Japan could face lockdowns in coming days. But consumer behaviour is already changing without formal restrictions being imposed, in response to the... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
