The resilience of imports in both March and April has prompted us to significantly revise up our forecast for Q2 goods and services imports. However, the nature of the current downturn means that services rather than more import-intensive goods will bear the brunt of the fall in consumer spending, so this doesn’t necessarily signal that domestic demand is holding up. Meanwhile, Greater Tokyo and Hokkaido are now the only two regions left under a “state of emergency”. With activity across most of the country now picking up, consumer spending in May should prove to be slightly stronger than in April.
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