Japan Economics Weekly Economy entered lockdown with strong momentum The pick-up in GDP in Q4 was stronger than most had anticipated. And while it still left output 2.9% below the peak reached ahead of 2019’s sales tax hike, other economic data released this week are... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sanguine January, TOPIX hits a 30-year high Timely data for January suggest that economic activity has held up far better than during the previous state of emergency last spring. And with the government mulling lifting the state of emergency... 11th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Emergency extension, more flexible JGB yield target While the government this week extended the state of emergency by a month in virus hotspots, with daily infections falling sharply and the start of the vaccine rollout imminent there is light at the... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Skies brightening, AstraZeneca-JCR deal boost The resilience of retail sales in December coupled with rapidly falling daily infections in recent days has prompted us to raise our forecasts for consumer spending in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. And we... 29th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Voluntary measures may not bear enough fruit The light-touch state of emergency appears to have had some success in stemming the surge in cases in the Greater Tokyo area. But with many hospitals reportedly close to full capacity, the government... 22nd January 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Suga banking on Pfizer vaccine ending harsh winter Japan’s state of emergency was extended to seven additional prefectures this week, with the declaration now covering more than half of national GDP. And there are early signs that the recovery in... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second lockdown will be less damaging than the first The state of emergency declared in the Greater Tokyo area this week only entails mild restrictions on economic activity and we think it will soon be extended nationwide and made more draconian in... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Suga will struggle to keep up light-touch approach Survey data suggest that surging coronavirus infections have done little to knock the economic recovery off course thus far. Such resilience amidst an increasingly severe public health situation has... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery slowing, but prospects brightening for 2021 The latest data suggest that the recovery in output has continued apace in recent months. Admittedly, the third virus wave will probably act as a brake on the recovery for now. But with vaccines set... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Infections rising again, “Go To” still alive and kicking Daily cases have started creeping higher again at the national level driven by a renewed rise in infections in Tokyo and Osaka. We suspect that both cities will soon ask citizens to stay at home and... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccines stoke Tokyo’s Olympic flame With many local authorities rolling out fresh restrictions this week, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the third wave will weigh on activity over the near term. But while we’ve revised down our... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Restaurant boost, third outbreak set to be worst yet Output recovered just over half of its H1 plunge last quarter. The onus is on services consumption to recover most of the remaining half – services spending was still 9% below its Q4 2019 level last... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine news boosts confidence in outlook While Japan’s stock market has largely shrugged off positive developments on the vaccine front, there’s little doubt that a vaccine would speed up the recovery of Japan’s services and export sectors... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound continues, winter third wave? The surge in car sales last month brought further evidence that the economy has continued to rebound over the autumn months. Admittedly, a recent spike in coronavirus cases in Hokkaido – which proved... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong consumption data, loan growth coming off boil The Cabinet Office’s monthly measure of consumption released this week showed a substantial upward revision for July and a rebound in August. That indicates that the second wave of infections acted as... 23rd October 2020 · 7 mins read
