Japan Economics Weekly Mobile tariff cuts add to drag on inflation Inflation will probably turn negative yet again over coming months once we strip out of the impact of October’s sales tax hike. However, that partly reflects one-off price cuts that have been flagged... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Childcare boost & trade negotiations The introduction of free childcare for children aged three to five and for those below three years of age from low-income families should encourage even more women to join the workforce. Improved... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capacity constraints set to loosen again soon The Bank of Japan’s claims that capacity shortages were the most pronounced since the early 1990s last year jar with the slowdown in economic activity and the fact that underlying inflation remains... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may be on course to sell JGBs The sharp fall in JGB yields in recent weeks means that the Bank of Japan will probably lower its JGB purchases more quickly than we had anticipated. In fact, there’s a chance that the Bank may soon... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What would it take to scrap the sales tax? Japan’s economy on some measures is weaker now than it was on the two previous occasions when Prime Minister Abe announced a delay to the planned sales tax hike, so it is perhaps not surprising that... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation target in question again The wisdom of the Bank of Japan sticking with an inflation target it can’t reach is being questioned again, including by Japan’s finance minister this week. But all alternatives would be worse. And... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank mergers to lift profits, trade deal back on agenda Upcoming regulatory changes reported this week should help support an increase in bank profits and thereby neutralise one of the key arguments for why the Bank of Japan should reverse its ultra-loose... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Property prices near bubble peak, Abe gets a lifeline The LDP’s proposal to do away with term limits for the Prime Minister will make little difference to the outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, we aren’t overly worried about the continued surge in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth outlook worsening The survey evidence suggests that the economy is losing momentum and we’ve lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0.5%. If the economy records yet another quarter of falling output, we suspect PM... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Firms pulling in their horns Corporate investment has been a key driver of domestic demand in Japan recently, underpinned by healthy profits and the growing capacity constraints that resulted from a prolonged period of above... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly 20 years of ZIRP This week’s “shunto” spring wage negotiations got underway against an inauspicious backdrop, with corrected official data showing that real wages didn’t rise at all last year. Next week, Japan’s zero... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Q4 rebound, immigration boost The final few releases of December spending and output data have provided reassurance that Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4. But the early signs for the current quarter are not at all... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exports slump as tech sector cools A shocking set of export figures this week may have been worsened by specific troubles in the tech sector. But a deterioration in the global environment is likely to be an increasing headwind for the... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households upbeat, but still price sensitive Japanese households are more positive about current economic conditions than they have been for many years but they report still being highly price sensitive, and their worries about the outlook have... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Unemployment nearing a floor, wage confusion It increasingly appears that Japan’s unemployment rate is bottoming out. Recent data suggest that wage growth is picking up, but the surge that some policymakers had hoped for at this point in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sub-zero JGBs renewing financial stability concerns The yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds turned negative again this week, for the first time since shortly after the “around zero” target was adopted in 2016. This may rattle some of the more... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
