Europe Economics Weekly What if the euro keeps on rising? This week, the euro reached its highest level against the US dollar since before QE began. It would probably take a much larger appreciation to knock the economic recovery completely off course. But a... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong investment to bolster economic growth At this week’s ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi highlighted the continued improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. He reiterated that the region looks set for a period of solid... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fiscal shackles loosen but little stimulus in sight Euro-zone member states appear to have put their public finances largely in order now, with the European Commission deeming this week that even Greece has made sufficient progress to become compliant... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? ECB President Draghi’s speech earlier this week prompted investors to re-assess the outlook for monetary policy. They now seem to expect the Bank to raise interest rates around the middle of next year... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe enters Brexit talks on a strong footing As official negotiations about Britain’s exit from the European Union began this week, the remaining member states appeared to be in a robust position. The euro-zone economy, in particular, is still... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slow wage growth underscores need for policy support The latest labour market data paint a positive picture of employment conditions in the euro-zone. Indeed, in Q1 the level of euro-zone employment finally surpassed its pre-crisis peak. What’s more... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast The ECB revised its inflation forecast down this week, but we doubt that this has meaningfully changed the outlook for monetary policy. After all, the change was small, and largely reflected tweaks to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Consumer slowdown won’t throw recovery off track Although the euro-zone’s consumer sector currently appears to be in good shape, the combination of higher inflation compared to last year and continued weak wage growth points to annual household... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is it foolhardy to trust the soft data? The message from survey evidence that activity in the euro-zone has picked up substantially since the end of last year has yet to be fully reflected in the official data. Indeed, quarterly growth of 0... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back to business for the ECB? The election of Emmanuel Macron as France’s next president has removed a big risk to the euro-zone economic outlook. This could allow the ECB to stop worrying about political risks and to concentrate... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Macron galvanise the French economy? Centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron looks set to comfortably defeat populist eurosceptic Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s final round of France’s presidential election and might even manage to secure a... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bank Lending Survey provides more good news for ECB This week’s Bank Lending Survey brought more good news for the ECB. Lending conditions have continued to improve, and growth in the demand for credit points to a continued decent recovery in... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Key questions about the French election After a tumultuous and ultimately nail-biting campaign, French voters head to the polls on Sunday to begin the process of electing their President. The opinion polls suggest that this first-round vote... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone set for healthy Q1 despite weak industry The strength of economic survey indicators in Q1 has not yet been reflected in either the retail sales or industrial production data. But construction appears to have boomed and car registrations... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
