Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss outlook darkens, Riksbank rate rises ahead Surveys published this week suggest that the Swiss economy is faltering after a strong first half of 2018, while inflationary pressures remain weak. This supports our view that the SNB will keep... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth to rebound in Q4 Delays to car production appear to have had a big impact on GDP in Q3, particularly in Germany and Italy. But these effects should be temporary, so we expect growth to rebound in Q4. This suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank signal rate rises ahead While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept monetary policy unchanged this week, they signalled in their policy statements that they intend to raise interest rates in the coming months. With... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unfazed by weak surveys, Italy in the spotlight Euro-zone surveys published this week painted a pretty gloomy picture of the economy at the start of Q4. Some of that weakness probably reflected temporary factors and the ECB didn’t appear to be too... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Italian tensions will keep Swiss franc in demand Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc increased this week as the Italian Government clashed with the EU over its 2019 Budget. With worries about Italy set to persist, we think that the franc will... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Tensions between Italy and EU ratcheting up The EU is almost certain to reject Italy’s draft budget. In our view, it is most likely that a re-drafted budget would still fail to meet the EU’s rules, so Italy will probably be put into an... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Inflation pressures mounting in Sweden and Norway Inflation data published this week showed that price pressures are building in Sweden and Norway. We expect the Riksbank to begin raising interest rates in December. But while the Norges Bank looks... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss price pressures set to remain muted The fall in Swiss inflation in September is a sign of things to come. Indeed, exchange rate effects and weak wage growth are set to ensure that price pressures remain very weak, keeping the SNB on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for 2018 hikes in Sweden and Iceland building There are still no signs that domestic political uncertainty is weighing on the Swedish economy, so we continue to expect the Riksbank to raise rates in December. Meanwhile, rising inflation... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank has lift off, SNB to remain grounded The Norges Bank’s “dovish hike” this week caused the krone to weaken, and we think that this is a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank left policy unchanged, and we suspect that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB focused on wage growth, not industrial slowdown Despite the recent softening of the economic data, on Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a positive tone on the outlook for GDP growth and inflation. And the Q2 labour cost data, published... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
