Europe Economics Weekly No end in sight for ECB monetary support While the ECB opted to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) at a slower monthly pace than anticipated, there is no immediate end in sight in terms of its duration. Indeed, we think that the ECB... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Crunch time for Italy? A rejection of Matteo Renzi’s proposed constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum could plausibly set Italy on a path towards an eventual exit from the euro-zone, an outcome not remotely priced in... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB must do more despite rising inflation expectations According to both market measures and survey measures, inflation expectations have been rising. Yet both short and longer-term inflation expectations remain undesirably low. And while the recent... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the risks around the French election Recent events seem to have further boosted the chances of the National Front’s Marine Le Pen in next spring’s presidential election. Of course, she has been quick to claim that Donald Trump’s victory... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is political risk greatest? Last week’s US election result raised the question of where the next political shock might be. The popularity of far-right candidates and forthcoming major elections make France and the Netherlands... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy now most likely to leave the euro-zone? According to the Sentix investor survey, Italy is now the most likely country to leave the euro-zone in the next 12 months. While we think that Italy remaining in the currency union is still the more... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany-France divergence looks set to last Last week brought some good news about the euro-zone economy, with October’s composite PMI and EC ESI both pointing to an acceleration of growth. But both the hard data and survey indicators look much... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts Last week, the European Commission (EC) published the draft Budgets for 2017 as submitted by eurozone governments. On the face of it at least, there is little for the EC to be concerned about. All... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Q3 data point to fairly slow growth Recent official activity data for the euro-zone have been fairly encouraging. Coupled with the unofficial survey evidence, they suggest that the region’s GDP growth might have maintained its pace or... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB going to taper? We think that the rise in government bond yields and slight appreciation of the euro after last week’sreports that the ECB is considering tapering its asset purchases were overdone. After all, in... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone growth picking up or slowing? The euro-zone’s two main activity surveys have given conflicting evidence about the state of the economy at the end of the third quarter, with the Composite PMI apparently pointing to slowing GDP... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unlikely to follow in Bank of Japan’s footsteps The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will replace its target for the monetary base with a 0% target for 10-year government bond yields has prompted speculation about whether the ECB might follow... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still little inflationary pressure from the labour market Even when the euro-zone economy seems to have performed fairly well, it has still been unable to generate any inflationary pressure. Indeed, despite the reasonably strong rate of employment growth in... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Looser ECB policy will still pull the euro down The ECB’s decision last week not to announce an extension to its asset purchase programme led us to revise our year-end forecast for the euro exchange rate. But we still think that looser monetary... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What are equity prices telling us about GDP? Euro-zone equity prices have risen so far in Q3, painting a more optimistic picture of the economy’s performance than the consumer and business surveys. However, there are two reasons why we think... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mixed messages from economic surveys The euro-zone Composite PMI has held up well since the UK’s Brexit vote, but it is too soon to sound the all clear. After all, the Composite PMI measures current output rather than indicating how... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
