Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will bank worries prevent further ECB rate cuts? 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s stubbornness will drag on growth While we’re still hopeful that the divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy will help to bring the euro lower against the US dollar, the combination of the Fed’s recent dovishnessand hints... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s mixed messages risk falling on deaf ears ECB officials appear to be trying to strike a balance between holding the door open to further policy action and yet stressing the limitations of monetary policy in order to pressure governments into... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The euro-zone’s consumer recovery is slowing We have argued for some time that the consumer recovery, which was the main driver of growth in 2015, would slow this year. Last week brought further evidence that this process is underway. Declining... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone recovery back on track? Any economic effects of last week’s tragic terrorist attacks in Brussels clearly pale into insignificance compared to the loss of life and social consequences. But the direct economic impact seems... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s trade surplus set to shrink We do not think that the recent strengthening of the euro is the result of a change of tactics from the ECB, away from trying to manage the exchange rate towards attempting to boost domestic demand... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB really out of ammo? The adverse market reaction to the ECB’s bolder-than-expected package of policy measures unveiled on Thursday reflected concerns, partly prompted by comments from President Mario Draghi , that the... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How long will deflation last this time? The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Why is the euro-zone economy slowing? Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi’s criteria for further easing already met Last week, January’s ECB minutes were published, revealing that all members of the Governing Council thought that it was necessary to reconsider the monetary stance. Separately, President Draghi set... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the debt crisis back? There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil price falls will depress inflation for some time yet Euro-zone consumer price inflation looks likely to pick up later this year, driven by the fading direct effect of lower oil prices and the feed-through of previous falls in the euro to consumer prices... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is France in a state of economic emergency? President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are the euro-zone surveys too optimistic? The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
