Europe Economics Weekly Worries about Germany are overdone Developments in Germany this week have increased concerns that the euro-zone’s growth engine is really starting to sputter. But we think that some of these concerns are overdone. After all, recent... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Where is the euro heading? The euro has been buffeted recently by concerns about protectionism, which have caused it to strengthen, and softer economic data, which have caused it to weaken. While the risks of an all-out trade... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro-zone’s upturn screeching to a halt? The most recent official euro-zone data have been weak and the latest business surveys are consistent in their message that the economic expansion has lost momentum. A sanguine view of this is that... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economic strength keeps French fiscal reform on track Positive fiscal data have been something of a rarity in France in recent years, so President Emmanuel Macron will have welcomed the news earlier this week that the French budget deficit for 2017 was... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What does the Brexit transition deal mean for the EU? A key hurdle in securing a relatively smooth UK exit from the EU has been passed. The Brexit transition deal preserves the current economic relationship between the UK and the EU for 21 months after... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? This week has featured a raft of speeches from the ECB’s Governing Council on the outlook for monetary policy, displaying a range of views among its members. Several would clearly prefer to end asset... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE has changed this year in more ways than one In addition to reducing the monthly pace of its asset purchases from €60bn to €30bn, in January the ECB also changed the composition of its purchases. Corporate sector debt now accounts for a larger... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has euro-zone growth peaked? The latest survey indicators all suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone has peaked. That said, the economic recovery looks set to continue at a healthy pace over the next few years. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still setting the scene for cautious, gradual normalisation The minutes of the ECB’s January meeting indicated just how cautiously the Bank wants to communicate and carry out its monetary policy normalisation. The ECB looks set to revisit its forward guidance... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the slowdown in domestic demand be sustained? Data released this week confirmed that the euro-zone economy finished 2017 on a strong footing. But the composition of growth shifted markedly in the second half of last year, with net trade making a... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do about rising Bund yields? German Bund yields continued to rise this week, with the 10-year yield hitting a 29-month high. Higher yields are unlikely to have much of a direct effect on the German economy, but by boosting the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How ambitious is the grand coalition’s plan for Germany? The fiscal proposals agreed by Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz as part of their plan to renew Germany’s grand coalition amount to a headline-grabbing 1.5% of annual German GDP and include abolishing... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Would a “flat tax” give Italy’s economy a boost? Two of the leading contenders to form a government after Italy’s general election on 4th March advocate a radical overhaul of the country’s tax code. Their plans would result in a substantial... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s strength not yet a major concern The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
