Europe Economics Weekly Should we be worried by Germany’s ZEW survey? Most information about Germany implies that the economy has continued to perform well after the UK’s Brexit vote. The main exception is the ZEW survey, which suggests that GDP growth could drop to... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP data highlight concerns about France and Italy Last week’s euro-zone Q2 GDP data revealed a strong contrast between the region’s strongest and weakest performers, with the French and Italian economies looking particularly vulnerable. In the second... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB set to follow BoE despite policy limitations The Bank of England’s policy action last week added to the pressure on the ECB to do more. At the moment, the ECB’s self-imposed restrictions would prevent a large expansion of its asset purchase... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slower euro-zone GDP growth a sign of things to come We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is a sign of things to come. While the UK’s vote to leave the EU won’t be a major drag on the euro-zone, we expect growth to slow further as... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Early Brexit signals provide some comfort Last week’s euro-zone and country level data releases started to lift some of the heavy fog on the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the currency union’s economy. The early signs are... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s calls for fiscal stimulus will not be heeded The ECB is set to loosen policy in the coming months. But there is a limit to how much more monetary policy alone can do for growth. In the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote, Mario Draghi’s calls for... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis? There is no easy solution to the euro-zone’s banking problems, but the risks of doing nothing are too large for policymakers to simply sit on their hands. We think that policymakers will find a way to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Brexit to hit France harder than Germany On the face of it, Germany seems more exposed than France to the effects of the UK leaving the EU. But in the time before the UK actually leaves the single market, France is more vulnerable than... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB needs to act decisively The UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union has put more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide additional policy support. We now expect an acceleration in the pace of the ECB’s asset... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A Brexit would force the ECB into action European financial markets have finally woken up to the threat of a Brexit, with stock markets and core country bond yields declining. A UK vote to leave the EU on 23rd June would prompt greater... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro 2016 unlikely to kick off French recovery There are hopes that Euro 2016 will provide a boost to the French economy and perhaps lift national sentiment. But any gains in football-related expenditure will be at least partly offset by falls... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly QE expansion uneven across the euro-zone The expansion of the ECB’s QE programme may have contributed to the recent increase in euro-zone equity prices and economic sentiment. But purchases of government bonds have increased by more in the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed The German economy got off to a strong start to the year. The healthy 0.7% expansion of GDP in Q1 was driven primarily by a pick-up in investment but also increases in public and private consumption... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the EC become more lenient on fiscal policy? On the face of it, last week’s decisions by the European Commission to allow Italy greater flexibility in its budget, and not to fine Spain and Portugal for their large deficits, suggest that it has... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth will slow from here Despite the downward revision to Q1 euro-zone GDP, the 0.5% quarterly gain still got the year off to a solid start. But there are good reasons to expect growth to be slower in Q2 and beyond. And the... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s sober forecasts are still too optimistic Last week’s EC Spring forecasts presented a pretty uninspiring picture of the euro-zone economy’s prospects. Despite the unprecedented degree of monetary policy support, growth is expected to slow... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
