Europe Economics Weekly Tensions between Italy and EU ratcheting up The EU is almost certain to reject Italy’s draft budget. In our view, it is most likely that a re-drafted budget would still fail to meet the EU’s rules, so Italy will probably be put into an... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Inflation pressures mounting in Sweden and Norway Inflation data published this week showed that price pressures are building in Sweden and Norway. We expect the Riksbank to begin raising interest rates in December. But while the Norges Bank looks... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss price pressures set to remain muted The fall in Swiss inflation in September is a sign of things to come. Indeed, exchange rate effects and weak wage growth are set to ensure that price pressures remain very weak, keeping the SNB on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Divergent debt prospects in Italy and France The Italian and French governments’ fiscal plans, announced this week, suggest that the headline budget deficit will be similar in both countries over the next few years. But we suspect that the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for 2018 hikes in Sweden and Iceland building There are still no signs that domestic political uncertainty is weighing on the Swedish economy, so we continue to expect the Riksbank to raise rates in December. Meanwhile, rising inflation... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank has lift off, SNB to remain grounded The Norges Bank’s “dovish hike” this week caused the krone to weaken, and we think that this is a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank left policy unchanged, and we suspect that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB focused on wage growth, not industrial slowdown Despite the recent softening of the economic data, on Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a positive tone on the outlook for GDP growth and inflation. And the Q2 labour cost data, published... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish election not a game-changer The latest opinion polls suggests that Sunday’s general election in Sweden will be a close call. But the outcome of the vote is unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for the economy or monetary... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak activity data not a sign of things to come The latest official data on activity in the euro-zone have been fairly weak, but the timelier survey indicators paint a more positive picture. Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have fallen recently... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc strength unlikely to last The Swiss franc has strengthened against the euro this week, but we doubt that this will last. Meanwhile, we think that Sweden’s forthcoming general election is unlikely to have much of a... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth, weak inflation Euro-zone data published this week showed a picture of fairly strong growth but continued subdued inflationary pressure. In the coming years, we expect GDP growth to slow, but underlying inflation to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly New franc forecasts, Swedish election heats up The upward pressure on the Swiss franc eased this week and our forecasts for monetary policy in Switzerland suggest that the currency will continue to depreciate against the euro over the next couple... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
