Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Impressive GDP figures mask domestic weakness Q4 GDP data from Switzerland and the Nordics released this week mostly showed impressive rates of growth – particularly in Sweden. However, upon closer inspection, the data masked signs of domestic... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession, auto tariff threat The small rise in the composite PMI for the euro-zone, from 51.0 in January to 51.4 in February, came as a bit of a relief – especially as this was the first increase in six months. However, it leaves... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed signs from the Swiss industrial sector The improvement in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q4 suggests that the wider economy returned to positive quarterly growth at the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the data appear... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Implications of Riksbank’s FX and QE policies The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC slashes forecasts, German recession still possible The publication of macroeconomic forecasts by the European Commission is not normally a market-moving event. But the extent of the downward revisions to its GDP forecasts seemed to take the financial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to strike a dovish note next week At its meeting next week, the Riksbank is likely to deliver a dovish message, perhaps hinting that even the single rate hike that it has pencilled in for this year is now in doubt. 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish fiscal boost to have a limited impact Sweden’s new government has agreed to cut income taxes and relax labour laws. It has also brought an end to four months of political uncertainty, at least for now. But we suspect that all this will... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank will tighten very slowly Recent developments suggest that both the Riksbank and Norges Bank will tightening monetary policy more slowly than we had previously anticipated. This is partly because we have revised down our... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
