Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss bonds soar; Norges Bank hawkish no more Safe-haven demand has seen Swiss bond yields plumb new depths and has continued to boost the franc. We think that it is only a matter of time before the SNB cuts interest rates further into negative... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What are yield curves telling us in the euro-zone? The steepness of the yield curve in Germany has historically been a poor leading indicator of recessions. But that is cold comfort given the contraction in the economy in Q2 and the further weakness... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What would early elections mean for Italy? Italy now looks set for an early election. Opinion polls suggest that a this would deliver a right-wing coalition, led by the League, which we suspect would be even more likely to clash with the EU... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growth to remain slow in Q3 Another set of weak data published this week is consistent with the ECB loosening policy further fairly soon. We think the Bank is most likely to announce a rate cut next month and a fresh round of QE... 2nd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SEK to stay the G10 laggard; CHF causing headaches With the Swedish economy likely to flirt with recession in Q3, a dovish shift by the Riksbank is well overdue. So, having been the worst performing G10 currency against the euro this year to date, the... 2nd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB ready to intervene; Sweden’s GDP to disappoint While the fall in the Swiss franc after the ECB meeting this week will have calmed some nerves at the SNB, we think that the currency will rise further over the next six months and it is a question of... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do in September? Following Thursday’s press conference, some analysts expect the ECB to announce a package of measures at its next meeting in September. However, we still think that the Bank is more likely to roll out... 26th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss exporters exposed to the rising franc Swiss exporters are feeling the pinch from the stronger franc and we think that things will get worse before they get better. Meanwhile, having weakened in Q2, the Finnish economy is likely to remain... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB spring a surprise next week? Next week, we think that the ECB will say that interest rates will remain “at present or lower” levels at least through the middle of next year, and that it “stands ready” to re-start QE. Hints at a... 19th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divergent trends in Swedish and Norwegian growth The Norwegian economy appears to have gathered pace in Q2, but the latest data from Sweden paint an increasingly gloomy picture for domestic demand. So while the Norges Bank will continue to buck the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French growth spurt unlikely to last Data published this week suggest that France is bucking the gloomy trend; we think GDP expanded by around 0.4% q/q in Q2 whereas growth in the other three large economies slowed. But France’s growth... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB won’t be a QE Lagarde this time The continued weakness of the economic data, together with Christine Lagarde’s nomination as the new ECB president, makes us more confident that the Bank will loosen policy in the coming months... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No more “boring” SNB, Riksbank in denial The Swiss 10-year bond yield dropped to a record low this week, and the prospect of further easing by the Swiss National Bank suggests that the rally has further to run. Meanwhile, although the... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone probably slowed to a crawl in Q2 This week has seen more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum and that inflation remains a long way below target. Meanwhile, we have brought forward our forecast for the ECB to... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
