Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed messages from the Riksbank The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance this week was a step in the right direction, but we still think that policymakers and investors are overestimating the potential for interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish elections, new oil price forecasts Spain’s economy is performing well in the run-up to Sunday’s general election, but we expect growth there to slow. Meanwhile, although we have revised up our oil price forecasts, energy inflation... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank on hold, Finland coalition talks to drag on The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger Q1 GDP growth would not be sustained The reasonably strong run of hard data for the first two months of the year has prompted us to revised up our estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% q/q. However, the downbeat tone of the business surveys... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish tone will need to be followed by action The ECB struck a moderately dovish tone at its policy meeting this week, but with economic growth still fairly slow it will need to follow its words with actions. Meanwhile, industrial production data... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stagnation in Sweden, Norges Bank hawkish Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Manufacturing woes spreading to Switzerland The sharp drop in the manufacturing PMI in Switzerland in March provides the clearest sign yet that the woes in euro-zone industry have spread over the border. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More weak data ahead of April ECB meeting This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone. The ECB is unlikely to respond by loosening policy further at its meeting next Wednesday, but we think that it won’t be long before the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi dovish, mixed bag of data Speeches by policymakers this week suggest that the ECB is likely to provide more policy accommodation within the next six months or so. All the more so as the latest survey data continue to point to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedbank under scrutiny, WOW Air collapse The scandal at Swedbank raise questions about transparency, corruption, and the relationship between banks and regulators in Sweden, while the collapse of WOW Air means that the chances of further... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone likely to have grown slowly again in Q1 This week delivered more data which suggest that the euro-zone economy grew at a meagre pace in Q1. And the Composite PMI is now at a level where the ECB has often loosened monetary policy in the past... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway going it alone, but tightening cycle to be short In a week when the Fed called time on its tightening cycle, and further signs of weakness in euro-zone activity lent extra support to our view that the ECB will ultimately have to do more to ease... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss GDP to slow, Norway bucking the Nordic trend We have cut our forecast for Swiss GDP growth this year to a below-consensus 1.0%. This leaves us broadly in line with the government’s recently-revised forecast for 2019, but we think its forecast... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Not yet at a turning point We don’t think the increase in euro-zone industrial production in January marks a turning point for the economy, given that the business surveys for February were weak and global demand is still... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB ahead of the curve, rebound in growth unlikely The ECB’s decision to launch more TLTROs and strengthen its interest rate guidance means that it is, at least for now, ahead of the curve. But we think the Bank is still too optimistic about economic... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Interest rates to be lower for longer The more dovish stance adopted by the ECB at its monetary policy meeting this week suggests that the upside risks to Nordic and Swiss currencies – particularly the franc – will intensify. Indeed, if... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
