Europe Economics Weekly China and Germany, another Spanish election With Germany having narrowly avoided recession and Italy’s downturn dragging on, policymakers at the ECB will soon have to provide more clarity about which tools they are willing to use if the... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC slashes forecasts, German recession still possible The publication of macroeconomic forecasts by the European Commission is not normally a market-moving event. But the extent of the downward revisions to its GDP forecasts seemed to take the financial... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to strike a dovish note next week At its meeting next week, the Riksbank is likely to deliver a dovish message, perhaps hinting that even the single rate hike that it has pencilled in for this year is now in doubt. 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy and Spain diverge, Brexit risks and Ireland At the end of last year, Italy fell back into recession but Spain’s economic growth rate accelerated. We think that this divergence will continue. Next week is a quieter one for data releases; we... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys point to contagion from euro-zone weakness Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slightly more dovish ECB not a game-changer The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Slowdown intensifies, ECB slightly dovish The latest batch of business surveys suggest that the euro-zone economy may be stalling rather than just slowing. We think the ECB will tweak its forward guidance in March, and will at least consider... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-gloom, Brexit fears and Greek politics This week saw more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost a lot of momentum. Meanwhile, the UK parliament rejected the EU Withdrawal Agreement, once again raising the spectre of a no deal Brexit... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish fiscal boost to have a limited impact Sweden’s new government has agreed to cut income taxes and relax labour laws. It has also brought an end to four months of political uncertainty, at least for now. But we suspect that all this will... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank will tighten very slowly Recent developments suggest that both the Riksbank and Norges Bank will tightening monetary policy more slowly than we had previously anticipated. This is partly because we have revised down our... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly PMIs pointing to a weaker 2019 PMIs for December pointed to robust growth in Q4 in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. However, the breakdowns pointed to weak growth ahead in Switzerland and Sweden, and only the Danish economy... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy continues to lose momentum Data released this week suggest that the economy lost more momentum at the end of last year and that GDP growth in 2019 won’t be as good as in 2018. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank finally hikes, Swiss risks reduce The Riksbank’s decision to hike interest rates this week supported our long-held view that it would tighten policy more aggressively than investors anticipate. But the risks from high household debt... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy kicks the can down the road This week, Italy’s Government again showed itself to be more flexible than many had anticipated. But its fiscal problems are far from over and, in our view, public debt still looks unsustainable in... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish as PMI confirms growth slowdown Following this week’s ECB meeting, and the latest data on economic growth in the currency union, the chance that the Bank raises interest rates next year has fallen. 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
