Europe Economics Update Would a victory for Germany’s SPD reshape Europe? A German government led by the Social Democratic Party could embark on a modest fiscal stimulus at home and show more fiscal leniency to countries such as Greece. But its policies would be unlikely to... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Agreement or not, Greece’s troubles are far from over The latest news on the Greek economy support the IMF’s pessimistic views about the sustainability of Greek debt. But regardless of whether a deal on the third bailout is reached or not, rising... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Le Pen’s new French franc rise or fall? We think that a new French franc would fall sharply against the euro if Marine Le Pen became President and took France out of the single currency. While the likelihood of these events is low, it is... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Key questions ahead of the Dutch general election With one month to go until the Dutch general election, in this Update we answer twelve questions about the vote and the possible consequences of a victory for the anti-EU Party for Freedom (PVV). 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank maintains dovishness for now While the Riksbank maintained a very dovish tone today, the strength of the Swedish economy and rising inflationary pressures mean that the Bank will soon have to change its stance. We expect the repo... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about an election in Italy? Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s decision to call a Democratic Party leadership contest reduces the chance of an early general election this summer. But an election could still take place later in... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB still do “whatever it takes”? Compared to 2012, when ECB President Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro” helped to bring the currency union back from the brink, the central bank’s ability to address euro... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which countries are most exposed to US protectionism? Germany, Belgium and particularly Ireland are the euro-zone members most exposed to US protectionism, while Portugal and the other peripheral euro-zone economies are the least exposed. 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update IMF’s gloomy take on Greek debt raises default risk (again) The IMF’s latest Greek debt sustainability analysis reveals that the Fund now sees debt rising even more sharply than it had assumed last year. This further reduces the likelihood that it will... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rate cuts still on the cards despite hawkish statement The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept monetary policy unchanged today, but struck a hawkish note in its accompanying statement. However, we believe that the downward effects of a further strong... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Recent data have brought further signs that public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery are improving. But January saw the sharpest monthly rises in bond yields since mid-2015, probably caused by... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany address its “grossly undervalued” currency? The accusation by US policymakers that Germany’s currency is “grossly undervalued” is partly justified. Indeed, while the euro’s current low level seems warranted by economic fundamentals in the... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies make a strong start to the year The Nordic and Swiss currencies have generally strengthened this month, albeit for different reasons. This is a trend that we expect to continue this year. 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election pits liberalism against protectionism Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage... 30th January 2017 · 2 mins read
