Commodities High volatility to persist while war rages on Commodity prices are as volatile as they’ve ever been. We don’t think volatility will ease until the war in Ukraine ends, because only then will we know the true extent of the Russia-related supply... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Lessons from the 1970s for commodity markets The experience of the 1970s suggests that the ongoing war in Ukraine and its effects on commodity prices will reshape commodity markets for years to come. Most immediately, elevated prices are likely... 29th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The war in Ukraine and Saudi oil policy Saudi Arabia has so far resisted pressure from the US to raise oil production in order to dampen prices but, with Russian oil production and exports set to be disrupted, we think that a move in this... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Can Russia evade sanctions on its crude exports? Even if the West bans crude imports from Russia entirely, the Iranian experience suggests that there will still be ways for Russia to get its oil onto global markets. But any workarounds would take... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update An extreme scenario for oil prices Russia’s oil production is set to decline over the course of this year under the weight of Western sanctions, but the scale of the decline will depend on the extent of the sanctions. In this Update... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EU’s pivot away from Russian gas will come at a price While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities How large are risk premiums in commodity prices? Our estimates suggest that risk premiums are currently adding around 40% to commodity prices. This suggests that commodity prices could fall a long way whenever concerns over the Russia-Ukraine... 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the upside risk to oil prices It is not in the economic interests of either Russia or the West to use trade in energy as a weapon against each other, but that is not to say it won’t happen. If energy flows were disrupted, we think... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Signs of life in Venezuela’s oil sector Oil production in Venezuela has been showing signs of life, and there is probably scope for further gains in the near term. But it would require a lifting of sanctions and significant investment over... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Recovering capex to put a floor under US oil output After it was slashed in the wake of the pandemic, capital expenditure by US oil producers is now rising. Given oil prices will probably remain high for a while, we suspect the recovery has longer to... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Assessing the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine In this Update, we discuss the possible ramifications for the global oil and natural gas markets of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much would depend on whether Western sanctions are placed on Russian... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update LNG growth to take some heat out of the gas market Growth in LNG exports, particularly from the US, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices in Asia and Europe. However, it will not be enough to return prices to pre-pandemic levels as stocks... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
