Energy Update No need to panic about Europe’s gas supply … yet Having fallen steadily for much of the last year, European natural gas prices surged last week. The catalyst was constrained supply. Given seasonally high stocks and subdued demand, we are not worried... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fixing leaks in Turkmenistan will only do so much Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Aviation pins its hopes on sustainable jet fuel The aviation sector is pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuel to help cut its carbon footprint over the coming decades. But any ramp-up in biofuel usage would pit aviation against the needs of... 25th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Energy Update China’s oil recovery not over yet China’s refineries pumped out more oil products than at any point in their history in the first four months of this year. This is perhaps not too surprising given that the removal of COVID-19... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to widen on US weakness The long-awaited inclusion of WTI Midland into Dated Brent is now taking place in a gradual month-long process that started on 2nd May. The inclusion of Midland could be a factor weighing on the Brent... 24th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to struggle in the next few months The key message from the latest China PMIs is that whilst China’s economy is likely to grow strongly this quarter, momentum is fading. This will be one factor weighing on commodity prices in the near... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Update JODI Energy Demand Monitor (Jan & Feb.) JODI data show that oil demand held up in advanced economies at the beginning of the year. We suspect this won’t last though as weakening economic activity drags on demand over 2023. The data also... 26th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think equities won’t move together with oil for a while Although equity and oil prices are usually positively correlated, we think equities will struggle in the next few months and that oil prices will end this year somewhat higher than they are now. We... 13th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Energy Update JODI Energy Demand Monitor (Dec. & Jan.) JODI data on global oil and natural gas consumption reveal that global energy demand remained in the doldrums around the turn of the year. We suspect a recovery in natural gas demand is more likely to... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update OPEC+ shakes up and tightens the oil market The surprise decision by OPEC+ to cut production has meant we have revised up our oil price forecasts for end-2023 and end-2024. This does not materially change our outlook for inflation in advanced... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Clean tech race to hit EU coal and gas demand The EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act announced last week aims to keep the manufacture of clean technologies within the EU and shows that global fracturing will take place within blocs as well as between... 24th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub prices to be rising by end-2023 US natural gas prices have plummeted recently amid subdued demand and elevated stocks. However, demand is expected to revive this year and next, which will put upward pressure on prices. 22nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities and the spillovers from financial markets While commodity prices have also been caught up in the chaos stemming from the banking sector turmoil, so far the impact hasn’t been too alarming as price falls for most commodities haven’t been... 17th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update First thoughts on banking stress and commodity prices Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of restored Saudi-Iran ties The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
