Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil risk premium to fall in 2022, but risks abound Our estimates show a fall in the risk premium in the oil price since the emergence of the Omicron variant, as concerns over demand resurfaced. But the risk premium is still large, which adds weight to... 16th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Revisiting our oil market outlook Omicron will weigh on jet fuel demand in the next few months, but the wider hit to demand is still unclear. And although OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its planned oil production increases, we think... 3rd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Strategic release of reserves is too little too late The announcement of the co-ordinated release of oil reserves by the US and other large oil consumers should mean higher supply (and downward pressure on prices) but it will come at a time when we... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A mild winter doesn’t change our price outlook We have left our near-term forecasts for energy prices (which are historically high) unchanged after reflecting on the latest weather forecasts for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US oil production to rise but stay stuck in low gear We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Coal is back in fashion, but not for long Coal prices are likely to remain high over the next six months as high demand weighs on already-low stocks. Prices should drop back next year, though, as demand growth moderates and supply improves. 19th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Natural gas prices now untenably high The price of European natural gas (TTF) surged by around 35% this morning, before crashing back down on Putin’s reassuring comments about Russian supply. The latest price moves appear speculative, and... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall as market returns to surplus in 2022 We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Three potential catalysts for lower European gas prices A mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, a substitution of gas for other fuels in electricity generation, and/or a rise in supply via Nord Stream 2 could all send European gas prices lower in the... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update How long will coal and gas prices remain sky-high? Coal and natural gas prices have soared around the world on the back of unseasonable weather and disruptions to supply. And even if the weather normalises and supply rebounds soon, we expect prices to... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Growth in US oil production to remain sluggish While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high European gas prices unlikely to be sustained We think a reversal of the factors that have fuelled the recent surge in European natural gas prices, namely high LNG prices, constrained supply and depleted stocks, will bring prices back down to... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
