Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show further signs of recovery in Central Europe The raft of manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe for August provide further evidence that the region’s recovery is gathering pace, helped by the improvement in the German economy. In contrast... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by exports The breakdown of Q2 Polish GDP data underlined that its tentative economic turnaround is largely a result of stronger external demand. But with the recovery in the euro-zone set to be modest, growth... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might the next twist in Turkish monetary policy be? The Turkish central bank appears ready to add to its policy toolkit in order to support the lira. No details have been provided yet, but our best guess is that, if new measures are introduced, they... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle slowing down The fact that the Hungarian central bank cut interest rates by just 20bp today highlights that, even though the forint came through the recent EM sell-off relatively well, Hungary is still highly... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble stays out of the firing line... for now The ruble has fared surprisingly well during the latest EM sell-off, in large part due to the fact that oil prices have edged up over recent weeks. Nonetheless, the ruble is still weaker than the... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Coming through the EM sell-off relatively unscathed Emerging European currencies have generally withstood the recent EM financial market sell-off relatively well. Meanwhile, equities in Central Europe have made strong gains over the past month. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey continues to tighten The further hike in Turkish interest rates today merely underlines how vulnerable the economy is to the recent slowdown in capital inflows. Looking ahead, much will depend on how the current EM sell... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a modest improvement, but growth remains weak 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia recession may be short-lived but growth will remain weak The slump in Q2 growth in Russia reported last week appears consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of 2013. The good news is that barring an unforeseen external... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth comes with mounting risks Turkey’s economy has picked up pace over the first half of this year, but this has been fuelled by a sharprise in credit and has come at the expense of a renewed widening of the current account... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe picks up pace in Q2 Growth in Central Europe accelerated in Q2, helped by improving conditions in the euro-zone, but the economies of South Eastern Europe seem to have weakened once again. The potential for further flare... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia enters recession Second quarter GDP data from Russia were not only much weaker than expected – according to our estimates they are also consistent with the economy having fallen into recession during the first half of... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia bides its time The Central Bank of Russia kept interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement provides some hints that policy may start to be eased over the coming months. Even so, dramatic cuts in... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data likely to provide grounds for optimism The raft of GDP data due over the next few weeks is likely to show that growth in Emerging Europe picked up in the second quarter of this year. However, while the region as a whole seems to have... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further cuts to come in Romania The surprise decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to accelerate the pace of policy easing reflects several factors, including a growing conviction that inflation will fall back by the end of... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
