Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC raises prospect of rate hike this year The Czech MPC’s statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting was generally quite dovish, but it does looks like the Council intends to start raising interest rates, albeit very slowly, this... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle has much further to run The Russian central bank’s 50bp interest rate cut to 9.25% today was larger than most (but not us) expected and, taken together with the relatively dovish tone of the statement, supports our view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble strength on policymakers’ radars The continued strength of the Russian ruble this month has started to raise concerns among policymakers, with President Putin hinting that some form of action might be taken to stem the rise. At the... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC steps up inflation fight The Turkish MPC’s surprise move to tighten monetary policy further today via another hike in the late liquidity rate indicates that policymakers may have a greater resolve to tackle the country’s... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains close to eight-year low EM inflation remained at close to an eight-year low last month, driven in large part by weakening price pressures in the BRIC economies. Inflation has been on the rise in most other EMs, although not... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: after the referendum… Turkey’s constitutional referendum last Sunday has resulted in a small bounce in local financial markets, with some of the biggest moves coming in short-term local currency bonds. That could be a sign... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on what the US airstrike in Syria means for Russia Russian equities and its currency have fallen following US airstrikes on Syria early this morning, reflecting fading hopes that US-Russia relations will normalise and that sanctions might be lifted... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CZK moves to managed float, further appreciation likely Despite what looks like heavy FX intervention by the Czech National Bank upon the exit from the koruna ceiling policy earlier today, comments from Governor Rusnok suggest that the Bank will tolerate... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC suggests tightening is off the cards in 2017 The relatively dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC at today’s post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that monetary tightening is a long way off. We only expect interest rate hikes to come... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The sharp rise in Turkish inflation in recent months has been caused by a combination of the fall in the lira, higher petrol inflation and a harsh winter. The impact of these should fade in the coming... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s data revisions: slip-up or step-up? Recent revisions to Russia’s economic data have drawn scorn and generated confusion but, while the country’s statistics are far from perfect, the changes do appear to be a step in the right direction. 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bond yields set to come down Russia’s bond market hardly moved in reaction to the central bank’s surprise re-start of its easing cycle last week. However, we think the policy rate will ultimately be lowered much further than... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at early koruna cap exit We think the next Czech MPC meeting on 4th May is the most likely date for a lifting of the koruna cap, but today’s comments by the Council have raised the risk that it happens outside of a scheduled... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
