Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on what the US airstrike in Syria means for Russia Russian equities and its currency have fallen following US airstrikes on Syria early this morning, reflecting fading hopes that US-Russia relations will normalise and that sanctions might be lifted... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CZK moves to managed float, further appreciation likely Despite what looks like heavy FX intervention by the Czech National Bank upon the exit from the koruna ceiling policy earlier today, comments from Governor Rusnok suggest that the Bank will tolerate... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC suggests tightening is off the cards in 2017 The relatively dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC at today’s post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that monetary tightening is a long way off. We only expect interest rate hikes to come... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The sharp rise in Turkish inflation in recent months has been caused by a combination of the fall in the lira, higher petrol inflation and a harsh winter. The impact of these should fade in the coming... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s data revisions: slip-up or step-up? Recent revisions to Russia’s economic data have drawn scorn and generated confusion but, while the country’s statistics are far from perfect, the changes do appear to be a step in the right direction. 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bond yields set to come down Russia’s bond market hardly moved in reaction to the central bank’s surprise re-start of its easing cycle last week. However, we think the policy rate will ultimately be lowered much further than... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at early koruna cap exit We think the next Czech MPC meeting on 4th May is the most likely date for a lifting of the koruna cap, but today’s comments by the Council have raised the risk that it happens outside of a scheduled... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC looks through rising inflation… for now The press release accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today remained dovish, but we think the Council is probably underestimating how quickly inflation will rise in the second half of... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update February’s drop in EM inflation mainly a China story EM inflation fell sharply last month but this was driven almost entirely by a New Year-related drop in food inflation in China. This will reverse in March, meaning aggregate EM inflation is likely to... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank starts slow but lengthy easing cycle Having cut the one-week repo rate by 25bp earlier in the day, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used her post-meeting press conference to stress that further monetary easing will be... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growing chance of Czech koruna overshoot after cap exit The jump in speculative inflows to the Czech Republic since the start of the year has increased the likelihood that the central bank will bring forward its planned exit from the koruna cap and that... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fed gives Turkish MPC cover to tackle inflation problem The Turkish central bank had good domestic reasons to tighten monetary policy today given growing concerns about inflation. But the Fed’s rate hike last night made their job easier by providing some... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish Polish MPC suggests that tightening is long way off The dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that, despite the recent rise in inflation, monetary policy will remain loose over the next couple of... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports The recently-released breakdowns of Q4 GDP data in the Central and South Eastern European economies showed that the pick-up in regional growth at the end of last year was driven by an encouraging... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank’s bond purchases are not backdoor QE The recent rise in the Turkish central bank’s holdings of government debt doesn’t appear to be the backdoor effort to ease monetary policy that some fear. Even so, the concerns this has raised... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read