Commodities Update Agricultural prices won’t necessarily follow oil down While the price of Brent has dropped by nearly 60% since January, agricultural prices have so far held up comparatively well. Although we wouldn’t rule out agricultural prices falling further, the... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update WTI to trade at a premium to Brent by 2021 Earlier this week, the virus-related economic disruption and the prospect of a surge in OPEC+ supply pushed the Brent-WTI price spread near to zero. Although it has since rebounded, we think the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update What higher OPEC+ supply means for the oil market OPEC+’s decision to abandon output constraint has been a factor behind the ongoing slump in oil prices. In our view, higher OPEC+ supply will weigh heavily on US shale output, prices and the risk... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update When will commodities find their feet? As commodity prices continue to flash red, this Update summarises how we think things will play out from here. In the near term, we suspect that further price falls are in store, regardless of policy... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Gold to find its feet later in the year In the last few weeks, we have revised down our forecast for global economic growth this year owing to the hit to activity from the coronavirus. At the same time, we now expect looser global monetary... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil price slump - this time it is different Oil prices have crashed by about 40% since end-January owing to the coronavirus-related demand shock and the collapse of OPEC+ output restraint. Following previous oil price crashes (2008 and 2015-16)... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to continue to underperform other commodities Even before OPEC+ abruptly abandoned output cuts, oil had fared far worse than most other commodities. Some of this can be explained by oil’s greater use in the forms of economic activity most... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update It’s a war for market share, not price Against a backdrop of a coronavirus-related slump in demand, Saudi Arabia appears to have abandoned efforts to balance the oil market and is instead aiming to protect market share. Its pledge to... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Worst is yet to come for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity exports collapsed in the first two months of 2020. In contrast, commodity imports held up relatively well, but this probably reflects the greater logistical challenge faced by... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMI readings prompt hopes of stimulus China’s PMIs slumped in February, and a particularly worrying drop in the employment component suggests that a swift recovery is not on the cards. The data do, however, bolster our case that economic... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A Democrat could spark higher oil prices We think that, at least initially, the energy proposals of a Democratic President would support oil prices by curbing supply more than demand. 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Revising our forecasts as COVID-19 effects linger We had previously assumed that any coronavirus-related hit to metals demand in Q1 would be made up in subsequent quarters. But that now seems unlikely. As a result, we are lowering our year-end price... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
