Energy Update Iranian oil output at low risk of long-term decline Since the imposition of US sanctions in May 2018, Iranian oil production has fallen by nearly 45%. For our part, we think that output would recover quickly if sanctions were lifted. Moreover, we see... 27th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead supply shortfall in 2020 looks increasingly likely In our view, market participants have recently become too downbeat on the prospects for lead. In fact, we think there are several reasons to expect the price of lead to rebound in the year ahead. 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities could play catch-up in 2020 Recent market moves, most notably in US equities, suggest to us that there may be too much bad news priced into commodity markets. Accordingly, we expect a modest rise in commodity indices in 2020... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The rally in US lumber prices is not over yet The price of lumber has surged in recent months. We think that prices will continue to rise in 2020 primarily on the back of ongoing strength in US housing starts and falling lumber supply from Canada... 20th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Burgeoning supply to take the shine off zinc The price of zinc has risen a little since its recent low in September on the back of unanticipated disruptions to supply. But we expect it to fall back again next year, premised on a rebound in... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Consumption data are overstating aluminium demand We think that aluminium consumption figures are being flattered by a resurgence in off-exchange stockpiling. As such, and contrary to consensus expectations of a market deficit in 2019, we think that... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is down for Chinese steel Our forecast of a downturn in China’s property sector bodes ill for the price of Chinese steel. Moreover, falling iron ore prices and a bleak outlook for China’s steel exports will add to the downward... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub to make modest gains next year Despite steadily rising supply, strong demand growth and expanding export opportunities should ensure that the average price of US natural gas (Henry Hub) will be higher in 2020 than 2019. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports reflect weaker activity China’s commodity imports were generally weak in October, and we expect volumes to remain subdued in the coming months given our forecast of a further slowdown in China’s economy. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher gold price forecast, but big picture unchanged We have revised up our end-2020 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver as we now expect a smaller rise in US Treasury yields next year. That said, we retain our view that a softening in safe... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Aramco IPO won’t have a big impact on the oil market We think that the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO is unlikely to have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy or on global oil prices either now, or in the future. Instead, Saudi output in the... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs tell contradictory stories There was a marked divergence between China’s October official and unofficial PMIs, which makes it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector. The rise in the Caixin PMI... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More of the same for tin in 2020 Output cuts by Chinese smelters mean that the price of tin is unlikely to fall further in the coming quarters. But with growth in major consumers set to slow and tin particularly exposed to “List 4”... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Three possible scenarios involving Nordstream 2 Recent construction delays to Nordstream 2 mean that the Russia-EU gas pipeline is likely to miss its scheduled completion date of December 2019. While we suspect that surging supplies of LNG from the... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read