Industrial Metals Update Burgeoning supply to take the shine off zinc The price of zinc has risen a little since its recent low in September on the back of unanticipated disruptions to supply. But we expect it to fall back again next year, premised on a rebound in... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Consumption data are overstating aluminium demand We think that aluminium consumption figures are being flattered by a resurgence in off-exchange stockpiling. As such, and contrary to consensus expectations of a market deficit in 2019, we think that... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is down for Chinese steel Our forecast of a downturn in China’s property sector bodes ill for the price of Chinese steel. Moreover, falling iron ore prices and a bleak outlook for China’s steel exports will add to the downward... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update The palm oil price rally has further to run Palm oil prices have soared recently in part because of unfavourable weather, which has clouded the outlook for supply. At the same time, we think that demand from the world’s top consumers is set to... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub to make modest gains next year Despite steadily rising supply, strong demand growth and expanding export opportunities should ensure that the average price of US natural gas (Henry Hub) will be higher in 2020 than 2019. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports reflect weaker activity China’s commodity imports were generally weak in October, and we expect volumes to remain subdued in the coming months given our forecast of a further slowdown in China’s economy. 8th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher gold price forecast, but big picture unchanged We have revised up our end-2020 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver as we now expect a smaller rise in US Treasury yields next year. That said, we retain our view that a softening in safe... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Aramco IPO won’t have a big impact on the oil market We think that the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO is unlikely to have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy or on global oil prices either now, or in the future. Instead, Saudi output in the... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs tell contradictory stories There was a marked divergence between China’s October official and unofficial PMIs, which makes it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector. The rise in the Caixin PMI... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More of the same for tin in 2020 Output cuts by Chinese smelters mean that the price of tin is unlikely to fall further in the coming quarters. But with growth in major consumers set to slow and tin particularly exposed to “List 4”... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Three possible scenarios involving Nordstream 2 Recent construction delays to Nordstream 2 mean that the Russia-EU gas pipeline is likely to miss its scheduled completion date of December 2019. While we suspect that surging supplies of LNG from the... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Sep.) Gold imports by China and India fell once again in September. With the Chinese economy set to slow and Indian consumer preferences slowly drifting away from gold, Asian physical demand is likely to... 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Global crude demand to trough in early 2020 Subdued global economic activity will weigh on oil demand next year. That said, we expect GDP growth to gradually pick up over the course of the year, and new International Maritime Organization rules... 16th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Trade war’s grip on metals to ease Despite the latest “mini-deal”, we think it is only a matter of time before trade tensions between the US and China escalate again. Either way, we think that the recovery in global economic growth... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to slow China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity. 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
